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Sha Tin · 2020-05-09

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-05-09 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALLANT LEGACY, ridden by V Borges and trained by C W Chang, won by 1-3/4, with GENERAL TRUMP second and DECISIVE TWELVE third. The 2.1 favourite ILUVATAAR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.09.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 GALLANT LEGACY SR/TT 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) V Borges · C W Chang 2 16.0 1-3/4
2 10 GENERAL TRUMP TT A Hamelin · T P Yung 6 13.0 1-3/4
3 2 DECISIVE TWELVE C Y Ho · W Y So 10 5.0 2
4 4 ARMOR STAR H1 M L Yeung · F C Lor 5 136.0 2-1/4
5 3 APEX TOP B1 C Schofield · A T Millard 1 54.0 2-1/4
6 8 UNIVERSAL CROWN XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 8 56.0 3-1/4
7 1 FLYING BONUS Z Purton · C H Yip 9 3.7 4-1/2
8 6 ILUVATAAR H1 J Moreira · J Size 4 2.1 4-3/4
9 9 UNITED WE STAND B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 11 48.0 6-1/4
10 7 RUN THE TABLE B/H N Callan · K W Lui 3 58.0 6-1/4
11 11 KELMIMI WINS P-/TT K C Leung · J Moore 12 19.0 6-1/2
12 5 BLAZING CONNECTION H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 264.0 25-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT LEGACY2. GENERAL TRUMP+1.75L3. DECISIVE TWELVE+2L4. ARMOR STAR+2.25L5. APEX TOP+2.25L6. UNIVERSAL CROWN+3.25L7. FLYING BONUS+4.5L8. ILUVATAAR+4.75L9. UNITED WE STAND+6.25L10. RUN THE TABLE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ILUVATAAR (24.2%) finished 8th — the winner GALLANT LEGACY was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 ILUVATAAR 24.2% 4.13 8
2 2 DECISIVE TWELVE 23.1% 4.33 3
3 1 FLYING BONUS 17.2% 5.82 7
4 12 GALLANT LEGACY 7.3% 13.76 1
5 10 GENERAL TRUMP 7.0% 14.30 2
6 4 ARMOR STAR 4.8% 20.88 4
7 5 BLAZING CONNECTION 4.0% 25.02 12
8 11 KELMIMI WINS 3.6% 27.96 11
9 8 UNIVERSAL CROWN 3.5% 28.26 6
10 9 UNITED WE STAND 1.9% 51.53 9
11 7 RUN THE TABLE 1.7% 59.39 10
12 3 APEX TOP 1.7% 59.70 5
ILUVATAARDECISIVE TWELVEFLYING BONUSGALLANT LEGACY — wonGENERAL TRUMPARMOR STARBLAZING CONNECTIONKELMIMI WINSUNIVERSAL CROWNUNITED WE STANDRUN THE TABLEAPEX TOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 169

PLACE

2 15

10 27

12 37.5

QUINELLA

10,12 686

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 61

2,12 104

10,12 137

TIERCE

12,10,2 5,754

TRIO

2,10,12 588

FIRST 4

2,4,10,12 5,147

QUARTET

12,10,2,4 118,116

2ND DOUBLE

8/10 151.5

8/12 1,278

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 16.5

A3