沙田 · 2020-07-01
第 10場
2020-07-01沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、F C Lor訓練的WINNING DREAMER勝出，贏出1-1/4。METRO WARRIOR獲得亞軍；CALIFORNIA ARCHER獲得季軍。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | WINNING DREAMER 0.55.64 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 3 | 1.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | METRO WARRIOR CP Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 10 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 4 | 16.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 13 | KEEP YOU WARM B/XB H N Wong · K W Lui | H N Wong | K W Lui | 6 | 38.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | WAR OF COURAGE J Moreira · K L Man | J Moreira | K L Man | 8 | 4.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | TRUST ME B M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 1 | 62.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 1 | SEVEN HEAVENS TT B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 2 | 17.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | STORM WARNINGS SR/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 5 | 19.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 6 | CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris | K C Leung | D E Ferraris | 14 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | TAKINGUFURTHER H/V M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 12 | 76.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER TT H T Mo · C S Shum | H T Mo | C S Shum | 11 | 41.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | HAPPY QIJI V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 9 | 121.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 13 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER B/XB C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 13 | 127.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | GOOD LUCK CHARM N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 7 | 24.0 | 20 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | WINNING DREAMER | 34.4% | 2.91 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | WAR OF COURAGE | 29.0% | 3.45 | 5 |
| 3 | 11 | CALIFORNIA ARCHER | 6.3% | 15.87 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | BALTIC WHISPER | 5.0% | 20.10 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | STORM WARNINGS | 4.5% | 22.44 | 8 |
| 6 | 9 | METRO WARRIOR | 4.0% | 24.92 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | SEVEN HEAVENS | 3.1% | 32.65 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | TRUST ME | 2.7% | 37.07 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | TAKINGUFURTHER | 2.5% | 40.24 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | GOOD LUCK CHARM | 2.5% | 40.80 | 14 |
| 11 | 6 | CUE THE MUSIC | 2.3% | 42.64 | 9 |
| 12 | 5 | HAPPY QIJI | 1.8% | 56.40 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | KEEP YOU WARM | 1.2% | 83.03 | 4 |
| 14 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER | 0.8% | 121.15 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 17.5
PLACE
9 33
11 34.5
14 12.5
QUINELLA
9,14 165
QUINELLA PLACE
9,11 192.5
9,14 64
11,14 53
TIERCE
14,9,11 1,536
TRIO
9,11,14 621
FIRST 4
9,11,13,14 3,237
QUARTET
14,9,11,13 30,451
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 17.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,8/9,11,14 537,807
9TH DOUBLE
5/9 446.5
5/14 673.5
SIX UP
2/3/5/3/5/14 554,551
2,4/3,11/1,5/2,3/1,5/9,14 5,399
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
3/5/9 2,992
3/5/14 2,086