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Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING DREAMER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with METRO WARRIOR second and CALIFORNIA ARCHER third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 WINNING DREAMER 0.55.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor 3 1.7 1-1/4
2 9 METRO WARRIOR CP Z Purton · J Moore 10 16.0 1-1/4
3 11 CALIFORNIA ARCHER H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 16.0 3-1/2
4 13 KEEP YOU WARM B/XB H N Wong · K W Lui 6 38.0 4
5 4 WAR OF COURAGE J Moreira · K L Man 8 4.3 4-3/4
6 10 TRUST ME B M F Poon · C H Yip 1 62.0 5-1/4
7 1 SEVEN HEAVENS TT B Shinn · C Fownes 2 17.0 5-3/4
8 2 STORM WARNINGS SR/TT1 C L Chau · D J Whyte 5 19.0 6
9 6 CUE THE MUSIC SR/TT K C Leung · D E Ferraris 14 24.0 6-1/4
10 12 TAKINGUFURTHER H/V M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 76.0 7-3/4
11 7 BALTIC WHISPER TT H T Mo · C S Shum 11 41.0 9
12 5 HAPPY QIJI V Borges · W Y So 9 121.0 10-1/4
13 3 SUPER COMMANDER B/XB C Wong · A T Millard 13 127.0 10-3/4
14 8 GOOD LUCK CHARM N Callan · P F Yiu 7 24.0 20

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WINNING DREAMER2. METRO WARRIOR+1.25L3. CALIFORNIA ARCHER+3.5L4. KEEP YOU WARM+4L5. WAR OF COURAGE+4.75L6. TRUST ME+5.25L7. SEVEN HEAVENS+5.75L8. STORM WARNINGS+6L9. CUE THE MUSIC+6.25L10. TAKINGUFURTHER+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick WINNING DREAMER (34.4%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 WINNING DREAMER 34.4% 2.91 1
2 4 WAR OF COURAGE 29.0% 3.45 5
3 11 CALIFORNIA ARCHER 6.3% 15.87 3
4 7 BALTIC WHISPER 5.0% 20.10 11
5 2 STORM WARNINGS 4.5% 22.44 8
6 9 METRO WARRIOR 4.0% 24.92 2
7 1 SEVEN HEAVENS 3.1% 32.65 7
8 10 TRUST ME 2.7% 37.07 6
9 12 TAKINGUFURTHER 2.5% 40.24 10
10 8 GOOD LUCK CHARM 2.5% 40.80 14
11 6 CUE THE MUSIC 2.3% 42.64 9
12 5 HAPPY QIJI 1.8% 56.40 12
13 13 KEEP YOU WARM 1.2% 83.03 4
14 3 SUPER COMMANDER 0.8% 121.15 13
WINNING DREAMER — wonWAR OF COURAGECALIFORNIA ARCHERBALTIC WHISPERSTORM WARNINGSMETRO WARRIORSEVEN HEAVENSTRUST METAKINGUFURTHERGOOD LUCK CHARMCUE THE MUSICHAPPY QIJIKEEP YOU WARMSUPER COMMANDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 17.5

PLACE

9 33

11 34.5

14 12.5

QUINELLA

9,14 165

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 192.5

9,14 64

11,14 53

TIERCE

14,9,11 1,536

TRIO

9,11,14 621

FIRST 4

9,11,13,14 3,237

QUARTET

14,9,11,13 30,451

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 17.5

A2

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,8/9,11,14 537,807

9TH DOUBLE

5/9 446.5

5/14 673.5

SIX UP

2/3/5/3/5/14 554,551

2,4/3,11/1,5/2,3/1,5/9,14 5,399

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

3/5/9 2,992

3/5/14 2,086