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Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LEADING FORTUNE, ridden by N Callan and trained by J Size, won by SH, with TRIPLE TRIPLE second and SMART WONGCHOY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite LADY FIRST finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 LEADING FORTUNE Closed strongly B/E 1.21.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · J Size 4 6.1 SH
2 2 TRIPLE TRIPLE Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor 6 4.9 SH
3 12 SMART WONGCHOY Led early H/P/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 26.0 N
4 14 ROYAL RACER Closed strongly V M L Yeung · C Fownes 3 22.0 2-1/4
5 6 LADY FIRST Closed strongly H/XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 1 3.3 3
6 3 PEARL CHAMPION B A Hamelin · A T Millard 12 8.8 4-1/4
7 5 SAM'S LOVE TT B Shinn · C H Yip 11 31.0 5-1/2
8 8 SEAWEED FORTUNE Closed strongly CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 7 12.0 5-1/2
9 1 STREET SCREAM B J Moreira · D J Hall 2 7.8 6-1/4
10 13 STOCK LEGEND B M F Poon · K H Ting 9 18.0 7-1/2
11 9 TOP MILITARY Closed strongly B T H So · T P Yung 5 36.0 8
12 11 LET'S TAKE IT EASY CP K C Leung · L Ho 10 55.0 9
13 4 SHANGHAI GRACE H T Mo · Y S Tsui 8 171.0 10
14 10 RIGHTEOUS WIN B H W Lai · P F Yiu 14 128.0 12-1/4
0 COURAGEOUS DRAGON · W Y So
0 GOLD 'N' BOLD K C Leung · J Moore

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LEADING FORTUNE2. TRIPLE TRIPLE+0.1L3. SMART WONGCHOY+0.05L4. ROYAL RACER+2.25L5. LADY FIRST+3L6. PEARL CHAMPION+4.25L7. SAM'S LOVE+5.5L8. SEAWEED FORTUNE+5.5L9. STREET SCREAM+6.25L10. STOCK LEGEND+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TRIPLE TRIPLE (18.9%) finished 2nd — the winner LEADING FORTUNE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 TRIPLE TRIPLE 18.9% 5.29 2
2 1 STREET SCREAM 17.2% 5.81 9
3 6 LADY FIRST 13.4% 7.46 5
4 3 PEARL CHAMPION 9.3% 10.80 6
5 14 ROYAL RACER 9.2% 10.84 4
6 7 LEADING FORTUNE 8.3% 12.03 1
7 13 STOCK LEGEND 5.7% 17.40 10
8 8 SEAWEED FORTUNE 4.5% 22.06 8
9 5 SAM'S LOVE 3.6% 27.65 7
10 12 SMART WONGCHOY 3.5% 28.55 3
11 9 TOP MILITARY 2.4% 42.34 11
12 11 LET'S TAKE IT EASY 1.6% 63.03 12
13 10 RIGHTEOUS WIN 1.5% 68.69 14
14 4 SHANGHAI GRACE 0.9% 115.54 13
TRIPLE TRIPLESTREET SCREAMLADY FIRSTPEARL CHAMPIONROYAL RACERLEADING FORTUNE — wonSTOCK LEGENDSEAWEED FORTUNESAM'S LOVESMART WONGCHOYTOP MILITARYLET'S TAKE IT EASYRIGHTEOUS WINSHANGHAI GRACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 61.5

PLACE

2 17.5

7 20

12 64.5

QUINELLA

2,7 143

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 51

2,12 190.5

7,12 252

TIERCE

7,2,12 6,630

TRIO

2,7,12 1,134

FIRST 4

2,7,12,14 4,618

QUARTET

7,2,12,14 79,466

2ND DOUBLE

13/2 46

13/7 284.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21.5

A3

A2