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Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER Closed strongly B 1.22.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · D J Hall 14 5.2 1-1/2
2 0 KELMIMI WINS Led early B/TT M L Yeung · J Moore 9 41.0 1-1/2
3 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly TT Z Purton · T P Yung 2 5.3 2
4 0 TREASURE CHEST K H Chan · P F Yiu 3 5.0 3
5 0 JOY MASTER Closed strongly V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 10.0 3-1/4
6 0 ROYAL CHOCOLATE B/XB/TT- K Teetan · A T Millard 7 14.0 3-3/4
7 0 BELLA BABY Closed strongly XB/H1/TT A Hamelin · W Y So 6 20.0 4
8 0 BLAZING PARTNERS SR N Callan · D E Ferraris 4 24.0 5-1/2
9 0 SOLAR BILLION Closed strongly SR M Chadwick · K L Man 10 41.0 6
10 0 GALAXY EMPEROR CP/H/TT C Wong · A S Cruz 5 20.0 6-1/2
11 0 SHANGHAI RUSKY B C L Chau · C W Chang 1 10.0 7-1/4
12 0 LITTLE GENERAL TT V Borges · C S Shum 11 7.5 7-1/2
13 0 ALL TIMES GRATEFUL M F Poon · C H Yip 8 28.0 13-1/2
14 0 FORTUNATE RUNNER CP/TT H N Wong · K W Lui 12 57.0 29-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. RED BRICK FIGHTER, ridden by J Moreira and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/2, with KELMIMI WINS second and YES WE CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.0 favourite TREASURE CHEST finished 4th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED BRICK FIGHTER—2. KELMIMI WINS+1.5L3. YES WE CAN+2L4. TREASURE CHEST+3L5. JOY MASTER+3.25L6. ROYAL CHOCOLATE+3.75L7. BELLA BABY+4L8. BLAZING PARTNERS+5.5L9. SOLAR BILLION+6L10. GALAXY EMPEROR+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick YES WE CAN (20.7%) finished 3rd — the winner RED BRICK FIGHTER was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 YES WE CAN 20.7% 4.82 3
2 0 SHANGHAI RUSKY 14.5% 6.89 11
3 0 RED BRICK FIGHTER 11.4% 8.74 1
4 0 TREASURE CHEST 8.7% 11.45 4
5 0 LITTLE GENERAL 8.3% 12.04 12
6 0 JOY MASTER 6.8% 14.74 5
7 0 ROYAL CHOCOLATE 6.7% 14.99 6
8 0 BELLA BABY 6.1% 16.50 7
9 0 BLAZING PARTNERS 3.6% 28.06 8
10 0 GALAXY EMPEROR 3.5% 28.86 10
11 0 ALL TIMES GRATEFUL 3.2% 30.81 13
12 0 SOLAR BILLION 2.8% 35.93 9
13 0 KELMIMI WINS 2.7% 36.41 2
14 0 FORTUNATE RUNNER 1.0% 104.77 14
YES WE CANSHANGHAI RUSKYRED BRICK FIGHTER — wonTREASURE CHESTLITTLE GENERALJOY MASTERROYAL CHOCOLATEBELLA BABYBLAZING PARTNERSGALAXY EMPERORALL TIMES GRATEFULSOLAR BILLIONKELMIMI WINSFORTUNATE RUNNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 52

PLACE

2 22

5 112

13 22.5

QUINELLA

5,13 878

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 376

2,13 69.5

5,13 304

TIERCE

13,5,2 10,404

TRIO

2,5,13 1,683

FIRST 4

2,5,11,13 2,067

QUARTET

13,5,2,11 54,647

1ST DOUBLE

9/5 301.5

9/13 341

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 25.5

A3 —