Sha Tin · 2020-07-01
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TRUE LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with MONKEY JEWELLERY second and HONEST WAY third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | TRUE LEGEND CP 1.09.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 12 | 3.7 | SH |
| 2 | 4 | MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 5.0 | SH |
| 3 | 1 | HONEST WAY CP Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 6 | 4.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | VIGOR CHAMP B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 1 | 28.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | SO AWESOME B Shinn · Y S Tsui | B Shinn | Y S Tsui | 7 | 9.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 10 | SPARKLING STAR TT V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 8.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON IN FIELD N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 4 | 98.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | BRILLIANT H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 10 | 43.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 17.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | HAPPY VICTORY B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 8 | 8.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 5 | ALLOY STAR M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 2 | 42.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 11 | FORTUNE HERO B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 75.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 24.7% | 4.05 | 2 |
| 2 | 2 | TRUE LEGEND | 19.4% | 5.15 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | HONEST WAY | 18.6% | 5.39 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | HAPPY VICTORY | 10.6% | 9.45 | 10 |
| 5 | 3 | WHISKEY NEAT | 6.0% | 16.69 | 9 |
| 6 | 10 | SPARKLING STAR | 5.4% | 18.59 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | SO AWESOME | 4.7% | 21.48 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | ALLOY STAR | 4.5% | 22.42 | 11 |
| 9 | 8 | BRILLIANT | 2.5% | 40.60 | 8 |
| 10 | 12 | VIGOR CHAMP | 1.5% | 68.05 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | DRAGON IN FIELD | 1.2% | 85.38 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | FORTUNE HERO | 1.1% | 89.82 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 37.5
PLACE
1 13.5
2 15.5
4 20.5
QUINELLA
2,4 96
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 32.5
1,4 40
2,4 41.5
TIERCE
2,4,1 595
TRIO
1,2,4 97
FIRST 4
1,2,4,12 464
QUARTET
2,4,1,12 8,802
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 20
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
10/2 236
10/4 48