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Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. TRUE LEGEND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by SH, with MONKEY JEWELLERY second and HONEST WAY third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 TRUE LEGEND CP 1.09.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 12 3.7 SH
2 4 MONKEY JEWELLERY J Moreira · J Size 3 5.0 SH
3 1 HONEST WAY CP Z Purton · D E Ferraris 6 4.0 1-3/4
4 12 VIGOR CHAMP B1 M L Yeung · K H Ting 1 28.0 1-3/4
5 9 SO AWESOME B Shinn · Y S Tsui 7 9.6 2
6 10 SPARKLING STAR TT V Borges · W Y So 11 8.8 2
7 6 DRAGON IN FIELD N Callan · P F Yiu 4 98.0 2-3/4
8 8 BRILLIANT H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 43.0 5-1/2
9 3 WHISKEY NEAT TT H N Wong · C Fownes 9 17.0 5-1/2
10 7 HAPPY VICTORY B/TT A Hamelin · A T Millard 8 8.0 6
11 5 ALLOY STAR M Chadwick · T P Yung 2 42.0 7-3/4
12 11 FORTUNE HERO B M F Poon · D J Hall 5 75.0 11-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRUE LEGEND2. MONKEY JEWELLERY+0.1L3. HONEST WAY+1.75L4. VIGOR CHAMP+1.75L5. SO AWESOME+2L6. SPARKLING STAR+2L7. DRAGON IN FIELD+2.75L8. BRILLIANT+5.5L9. WHISKEY NEAT+5.5L10. HAPPY VICTORY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MONKEY JEWELLERY (24.7%) finished 2nd — the winner TRUE LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MONKEY JEWELLERY 24.7% 4.05 2
2 2 TRUE LEGEND 19.4% 5.15 1
3 1 HONEST WAY 18.6% 5.39 3
4 7 HAPPY VICTORY 10.6% 9.45 10
5 3 WHISKEY NEAT 6.0% 16.69 9
6 10 SPARKLING STAR 5.4% 18.59 6
7 9 SO AWESOME 4.7% 21.48 5
8 5 ALLOY STAR 4.5% 22.42 11
9 8 BRILLIANT 2.5% 40.60 8
10 12 VIGOR CHAMP 1.5% 68.05 4
11 6 DRAGON IN FIELD 1.2% 85.38 7
12 11 FORTUNE HERO 1.1% 89.82 12
MONKEY JEWELLERYTRUE LEGEND — wonHONEST WAYHAPPY VICTORYWHISKEY NEATSPARKLING STARSO AWESOMEALLOY STARBRILLIANTVIGOR CHAMPDRAGON IN FIELDFORTUNE HERO

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 37.5

PLACE

1 13.5

2 15.5

4 20.5

QUINELLA

2,4 96

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 32.5

1,4 40

2,4 41.5

TIERCE

2,4,1 595

TRIO

1,2,4 97

FIRST 4

1,2,4,12 464

QUARTET

2,4,1,12 8,802

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 20

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

10/2 236

10/4 48