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Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 11 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRECISE EXPRESS, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with EASY GO EASY WIN second and EVER LAUGH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite CHEERFUL LEADER finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.34.54
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly XB- 1.34.54 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu 11 33.0 3/4
2 1 EASY GO EASY WIN V/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 1 7.5 3/4
3 8 EVER LAUGH Led early B/TT C Wong · K L Man 7 14.0 1-1/4
4 9 RED ELYSEES Closed strongly B C Y Ho · K L Man 3 7.6 1-3/4
5 7 CHEERFUL LEADER Closed strongly B/XB Z Purton · P F Yiu 10 3.0 2-3/4
6 4 EVERYONE'S JOY Closed strongly CP-/XB/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor 9 28.0 3-1/2
7 11 WIND GLIDER Closed strongly B/TT T H So · P O'Sullivan 2 45.0 3-3/4
8 12 DECISIVE ACTION J Moreira · C H Yip 5 3.7 4-1/4
9 3 DELIGHTFUL LAOS TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 8 6.0 4-1/2
10 10 KIRAM V Borges · D E Ferraris 6 105.0 7
11 2 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui 4 64.0 7-1/4
6 BIG BROOK M L Yeung · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECISE EXPRESS2. EASY GO EASY WIN+0.75L3. EVER LAUGH+1.25L4. RED ELYSEES+1.75L5. CHEERFUL LEADER+2.75L6. EVERYONE'S JOY+3.5L7. WIND GLIDER+3.75L8. DECISIVE ACTION+4.25L9. DELIGHTFUL LAOS+4.5L10. KIRAM+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick DECISIVE ACTION (28.2%) finished 8th — the winner PRECISE EXPRESS was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 DECISIVE ACTION 28.2% 3.54 8
2 7 CHEERFUL LEADER 26.6% 3.75 5
3 3 DELIGHTFUL LAOS 14.4% 6.96 9
4 9 RED ELYSEES 6.1% 16.50 4
5 4 EVERYONE'S JOY 5.5% 18.29 6
6 8 EVER LAUGH 4.9% 20.28 3
7 2 JOLLY HONOUR 4.1% 24.37 11
8 11 WIND GLIDER 3.8% 26.51 7
9 1 EASY GO EASY WIN 3.1% 32.61 2
10 10 KIRAM 2.4% 42.18 10
11 5 PRECISE EXPRESS 1.0% 101.95 1
DECISIVE ACTIONCHEERFUL LEADERDELIGHTFUL LAOSRED ELYSEESEVERYONE'S JOYEVER LAUGHJOLLY HONOURWIND GLIDEREASY GO EASY WINKIRAMPRECISE EXPRESS — won

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 330.5

PLACE

1 23

5 73.5

8 36.5

QUINELLA

1,5 999

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 263

1,8 118.5

5,8 420.5

TIERCE

5,1,8 24,210

TRIO

1,5,8 3,429

FIRST 4

1,5,8,9 3,165

QUARTET

5,1,8,9 81,141

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 55

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

3/1 54.5

3/5 1,127.5