Sha Tin · 2020-07-01

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C 9 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. FALCON TURBO, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with EXCELLENT PROPOSAL second and LORIZ third. The 2.0 favourite MIG ENERGY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.08.39

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	FALCON TURBO B 1.08.39 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	2	124 lb	7.9	SH
2	1	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL E1 J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	10	132 lb	4.1	SH
3	8	LORIZ V Borges · P F Yiu	V Borges	P F Yiu	1	121 lb	4.3	1-1/2
4	2	MIG ENERGY XB/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	7	130 lb	2.0	4-1/2
5	6	HAPPY FORTUNE H/XB1 T H So · L Ho	T H So	L Ho	9	121 lb	128.0	8-1/2
6	4	TELECOM PUMA SR/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting	A Hamelin	K H Ting	3	126 lb	17.0	9-1/2
7	3	PRIVATE COUNCIL N Callan · W Y So	N Callan	W Y So	5	130 lb	127.0	11
8	9	WINNING ENDEAVOUR XB- H W Lai · D E Ferraris	H W Lai	D E Ferraris	4	121 lb	49.0	11
9	10	HELAKU KNIGHT CP2 M L Yeung · J Moore	M L Yeung	J Moore	6	118 lb	56.0	15-3/4
—	7	JOLLY GOOD HEART C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	—	113 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick MIG ENERGY (34.4%) finished 4th — the winner FALCON TURBO was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	MIG ENERGY	34.4%	2.91	4	2.0
2	8	LORIZ	17.2%	5.81	3	4.3
3	9	WINNING ENDEAVOUR	13.8%	7.23	8	49.0
4	1	EXCELLENT PROPOSAL	13.4%	7.47	2	4.1
5	5	FALCON TURBO	10.0%	10.00	1	7.9
6	4	TELECOM PUMA	5.9%	16.94	6	17.0
7	3	PRIVATE COUNCIL	2.7%	36.49	7	127.0
8	10	HELAKU KNIGHT	2.1%	48.57	9	56.0
9	6	HAPPY FORTUNE	0.5%	195.28	5	128.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 79

PLACE

1 17.5

5 13

8 15.5

QUINELLA

1,5 145

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 44

1,8 29.5

5,8 32.5

TIERCE

5,1,8 1,241

TRIO

1,5,8 129

FIRST 4

1,2,5,8 36

QUARTET

5,1,8,2 1,952

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,10,11/1,5,8 120,537

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 42

A1 —

6TH DOUBLE

3/1 33

3/5 593.5

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