Sha Tin · 2020-07-01
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-01 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. COLUMBUS COUNTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with BUTTERFIELD second and HELENA BABY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLUMBUS COUNTY Closed strongly H/TT 1.46.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 3 | 3.8 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD Led early TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 11 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | HELENA BABY Closed strongly M L Yeung · J Moore | M L Yeung | J Moore | 1 | 17.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | SAVVY NINE Closed strongly TT N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 7 | 23.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | HELLO DADDY B M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 8 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | CHAMPION SUPREME B/TT V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 2 | 4.2 | 3 |
| 7 | 8 | HIGH REV Closed strongly B/XB T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 4 | 13.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 6 | 4.9 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | RIGHT CHOICE B K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 9 | 16.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | GLORIOUS ARTIST C Wong · F C Lor | C Wong | F C Lor | 10 | 110.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | NICCONI EXPRESS P A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 5 | 11.0 | 13 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 24.5% | 4.09 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE | 18.1% | 5.51 | 8 |
| 3 | 5 | NICCONI EXPRESS | 11.1% | 8.98 | 11 |
| 4 | 11 | CHAMPION SUPREME | 9.8% | 10.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 10 | HELLO DADDY | 9.1% | 11.03 | 5 |
| 6 | 6 | RIGHT CHOICE | 7.5% | 13.35 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD | 7.3% | 13.65 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | GLORIOUS ARTIST | 4.1% | 24.27 | 10 |
| 9 | 1 | SAVVY NINE | 3.5% | 28.38 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | HELENA BABY | 2.7% | 37.12 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | HIGH REV | 2.3% | 44.29 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 38.5
PLACE
2 34.5
3 16
9 45.5
QUINELLA
2,3 227.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 75
2,9 354.5
3,9 141
TIERCE
3,2,9 4,671
TRIO
2,3,9 978
FIRST 4
1,2,3,9 3,812
QUARTET
3,2,9,1 56,113
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21.5
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
5/2 149.5
5/3 352