沙田 · 2020-07-05
第 11場
2020-07-05沙田第11場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由K C Leung策騎、P F Yiu訓練的SHINING GEM勝出，贏出N。ALL IN MIND獲得亞軍；LUCKY EXPRESS獲得季軍。2.4倍大熱門LUCKY EXPRESS跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SHINING GEM CP 1.08.32 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 12 | 16.0 | N |
| 2 | 8 | ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz | C Y Ho | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.6 | N |
| 3 | 10 | LUCKY EXPRESS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 2.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 5 | 13.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 3 | MASSIVE POCKET XB A Hamelin · K W Lui | A Hamelin | K W Lui | 7 | 18.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | ARMANDO K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 10 | 6.4 | 3 |
| 7 | 7 | MAGIC LEGEND H Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 4 | 17.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 1 | 35.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | GUNNISON K H Chan · J Size | K H Chan | J Size | 11 | 67.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | GOLDEN DASH B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 20.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | MOMENT OF POWER B T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 190.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | MR CROISSANT CP C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 2 | 8.2 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LUCKY EXPRESS | 33.0% | 3.03 | 3 |
| 2 | 8 | ALL IN MIND | 13.9% | 7.18 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | MR CROISSANT | 10.4% | 9.63 | 12 |
| 4 | 11 | ARMANDO | 9.7% | 10.36 | 6 |
| 5 | 5 | SHINING GEM | 7.3% | 13.77 | 1 |
| 6 | 7 | MAGIC LEGEND | 6.9% | 14.57 | 7 |
| 7 | 9 | GOLDEN DASH | 5.8% | 17.14 | 10 |
| 8 | 1 | GUNNISON | 4.0% | 24.80 | 9 |
| 9 | 4 | HIGHLY PROACTIVE | 3.2% | 31.26 | 4 |
| 10 | 3 | MASSIVE POCKET | 2.8% | 35.53 | 5 |
| 11 | 6 | SAUL'S SPECIAL | 2.2% | 45.45 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | MOMENT OF POWER | 0.8% | 118.74 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 162.5
PLACE
5 42.5
8 17
10 14
QUINELLA
5,8 542.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 150.5
5,10 95.5
8,10 31.5
TIERCE
5,8,10 4,824
TRIO
5,8,10 389
FIRST 4
4,5,8,10 937
QUARTET
5,8,10,4 40,088
10TH DOUBLE
9/5 998.5
9/8 32
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 37
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,9/5,8,10 13,040
SIX UP
2/4/3/3/9/5 800,688
2,9/4,10/3,5/1,3/1,9/5,8 2,933
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
3/9/5 8,034
3/9/8 167