沙田 · 2020-07-05
第 8場
2020-07-05沙田第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由Z Purton策騎、J Moore訓練的SUNNY BOY勝出，贏出1/2。ELITE PATCH獲得亞軍；HALL OF CHAMP獲得季軍。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SUNNY BOY B/TT 1.08.98 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 1 | 2.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 5 | ELITE PATCH PC-/H/B2/TT J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 7 | 9.3 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | HALL OF CHAMP M Chadwick · D J Hall | M Chadwick | D J Hall | 5 | 29.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | LE TERROIR CP/XB C Schofield · L Ho | C Schofield | L Ho | 4 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 8 | GRADE ONE B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan | A Hamelin | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 38.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | AQUILA C L Chau · K H Ting | C L Chau | K H Ting | 10 | 11.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 6 | 43.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 4 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 2.9 | 9-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 9 | 14.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | CORRIENTHES SR H T Mo · D E Ferraris | H T Mo | D E Ferraris | 8 | 115.0 | 13 |
| 11 | 1 | SMART FOLKS B-/P1 B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 11 | 198.0 | 20-3/4 |
| — | 2 | PRECIOUS EXPRESS N Callan · P F Yiu | N Callan | P F Yiu | 2 | 18.0 | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 36.1% | 2.77 | 8 |
| 2 | 3 | SUNNY BOY | 23.0% | 4.34 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | ELITE PATCH | 15.2% | 6.56 | 2 |
| 4 | 12 | HALL OF CHAMP | 5.2% | 19.38 | 3 |
| 5 | 9 | LE TERROIR | 4.7% | 21.15 | 4 |
| 6 | 8 | GRADE ONE | 4.3% | 23.14 | 5 |
| 7 | 6 | AQUILA | 3.6% | 27.81 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 3.3% | 30.51 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | GOLFMAN STAR | 2.8% | 35.89 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | CORRIENTHES | 0.9% | 113.33 | 10 |
| 11 | 1 | SMART FOLKS | 0.9% | 115.48 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 27.5
PLACE
3 13.5
5 23
12 60
QUINELLA
3,5 116.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 43.5
3,12 147
5,12 267.5
TIERCE
3,5,12 3,654
TRIO
3,5,12 995
FIRST 4
3,5,9,12 1,943
QUARTET
3,5,12,9 25,164
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,10,11/3,5,12 267,430
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 14
A2 —
7TH DOUBLE
4/3 136.5
4/5 48