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Sha Tin · 2020-07-05

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 11 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. SUNNY BOY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with ELITE PATCH second and HALL OF CHAMP third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUNNY BOY B/TT 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore 1 2.7 1/2
2 5 ELITE PATCH PC-/H/B2/TT J Moreira · K W Lui 7 9.3 1/2
3 12 HALL OF CHAMP M Chadwick · D J Hall 5 29.0 3-1/4
4 9 LE TERROIR CP/XB C Schofield · L Ho 4 11.0 3-3/4
5 8 GRADE ONE B A Hamelin · P O'Sullivan 12 38.0 5-1/2
6 6 AQUILA C L Chau · K H Ting 10 11.0 6-1/2
7 10 MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 43.0 8-3/4
8 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 2.9 9-1/2
9 7 GOLFMAN STAR K C Leung · F C Lor 9 14.0 10-3/4
10 11 CORRIENTHES SR H T Mo · D E Ferraris 8 115.0 13
11 1 SMART FOLKS B-/P1 B Shinn · C W Chang 11 198.0 20-3/4
2 PRECIOUS EXPRESS N Callan · P F Yiu 2 18.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNNY BOY2. ELITE PATCH+0.5L3. HALL OF CHAMP+3.25L4. LE TERROIR+3.75L5. GRADE ONE+5.5L6. AQUILA+6.5L7. MOST BEAUTIFUL+8.75L8. CALIFORNIA CONCORD+9.5L9. GOLFMAN STAR+10.75L10. CORRIENTHES+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA CONCORD (36.1%) finished 8th — the winner SUNNY BOY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 CALIFORNIA CONCORD 36.1% 2.77 8
2 3 SUNNY BOY 23.0% 4.34 1
3 5 ELITE PATCH 15.2% 6.56 2
4 12 HALL OF CHAMP 5.2% 19.38 3
5 9 LE TERROIR 4.7% 21.15 4
6 8 GRADE ONE 4.3% 23.14 5
7 6 AQUILA 3.6% 27.81 6
8 10 MOST BEAUTIFUL 3.3% 30.51 7
9 7 GOLFMAN STAR 2.8% 35.89 9
10 11 CORRIENTHES 0.9% 113.33 10
11 1 SMART FOLKS 0.9% 115.48 11
CALIFORNIA CONCORDSUNNY BOY — wonELITE PATCHHALL OF CHAMPLE TERROIRGRADE ONEAQUILAMOST BEAUTIFULGOLFMAN STARCORRIENTHESSMART FOLKS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 27.5

PLACE

3 13.5

5 23

12 60

QUINELLA

3,5 116.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 43.5

3,12 147

5,12 267.5

TIERCE

3,5,12 3,654

TRIO

3,5,12 995

FIRST 4

3,5,9,12 1,943

QUARTET

3,5,12,9 25,164

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/3,5,12 267,430

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 14

A2

7TH DOUBLE

4/3 136.5

4/5 48