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Sha Tin · 2020-07-05

Race 11

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SHINING GEM, ridden by K C Leung and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with ALL IN MIND second and LUCKY EXPRESS third. The 2.4 favourite LUCKY EXPRESS finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 SHINING GEM CP 1.08.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 16.0 N
2 8 ALL IN MIND H/XB/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 3 5.6 N
3 10 LUCKY EXPRESS J Moreira · J Size 8 2.4 1-1/4
4 4 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/P/TT N Callan · K W Lui 5 13.0 1-3/4
5 3 MASSIVE POCKET XB A Hamelin · K W Lui 7 18.0 2-3/4
6 11 ARMANDO K Teetan · A T Millard 10 6.4 3
7 7 MAGIC LEGEND H Z Purton · J Moore 4 17.0 3-1/4
8 6 SAUL'S SPECIAL B/H C L Chau · C W Chang 1 35.0 3-1/2
9 1 GUNNISON K H Chan · J Size 11 67.0 6-1/4
10 9 GOLDEN DASH B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 20.0 6-1/2
11 12 MOMENT OF POWER B T H So · P O'Sullivan 9 190.0 7-1/2
12 2 MR CROISSANT CP C Schofield · W Y So 2 8.2 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINING GEM2. ALL IN MIND+0.05L3. LUCKY EXPRESS+1.25L4. HIGHLY PROACTIVE+1.75L5. MASSIVE POCKET+2.75L6. ARMANDO+3L7. MAGIC LEGEND+3.25L8. SAUL'S SPECIAL+3.5L9. GUNNISON+6.25L10. GOLDEN DASH+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LUCKY EXPRESS (33.0%) finished 3rd — the winner SHINING GEM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 LUCKY EXPRESS 33.0% 3.03 3
2 8 ALL IN MIND 13.9% 7.18 2
3 2 MR CROISSANT 10.4% 9.63 12
4 11 ARMANDO 9.7% 10.36 6
5 5 SHINING GEM 7.3% 13.77 1
6 7 MAGIC LEGEND 6.9% 14.57 7
7 9 GOLDEN DASH 5.8% 17.14 10
8 1 GUNNISON 4.0% 24.80 9
9 4 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 3.2% 31.26 4
10 3 MASSIVE POCKET 2.8% 35.53 5
11 6 SAUL'S SPECIAL 2.2% 45.45 8
12 12 MOMENT OF POWER 0.8% 118.74 11
LUCKY EXPRESSALL IN MINDMR CROISSANTARMANDOSHINING GEM — wonMAGIC LEGENDGOLDEN DASHGUNNISONHIGHLY PROACTIVEMASSIVE POCKETSAUL'S SPECIALMOMENT OF POWER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 162.5

PLACE

5 42.5

8 17

10 14

QUINELLA

5,8 542.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,8 150.5

5,10 95.5

8,10 31.5

TIERCE

5,8,10 4,824

TRIO

5,8,10 389

FIRST 4

4,5,8,10 937

QUARTET

5,8,10,4 40,088

10TH DOUBLE

9/5 998.5

9/8 32

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 37

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,9/5,8,10 13,040

SIX UP

2/4/3/3/9/5 800,688

2,9/4,10/3,5/1,3/1,9/5,8 2,933

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

3/9/5 8,034

3/9/8 167