Sha Tin · 2020-07-05
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. JOYFUL FORTUNE, ridden by B Shinn and trained by D J Hall, won by 4-3/4, with FABULOUS EIGHT second and CARRY THE DIAMOND third. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | JOYFUL FORTUNE 0.55.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 9 | 1.8 | 4-3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | FABULOUS EIGHT TT C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 8 | 4.3 | 4-3/4 |
| 3 | 8 | CARRY THE DIAMOND B1/H1/TT1 C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 5 | 120.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR B A Hamelin · K L Man | A Hamelin | K L Man | 10 | 8.5 | 5-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 12.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | MAGIC SUPREME H/XB/TT K H Chan · J Moore | K H Chan | J Moore | 4 | 46.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 9 | GOKO B/TT N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 6 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | COMFORT LIFE V/XB/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 1 | 16.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | SUPER LUCKY B/H/XB J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 3 | 21.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | STAR PRESENT H1/P1/TT1 M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 13 | 211.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 13 | VIVA MAMA K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 7 | 23.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | M M JOHNNY B H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 2 | 185.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 11 | PLANET FLYER M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 12 | 179.0 | 12-1/4 |
| 14 | 7 | ALL THE WAY B/TT1 H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 14 | 279.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 20.0% | 5.00 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | DUBLIN STAR | 17.3% | 5.76 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | COMFORT LIFE | 17.1% | 5.85 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | SUPER LUCKY | 16.6% | 6.04 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | CARRY THE DIAMOND | 4.5% | 22.32 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | MANAGEMENT SUPREME | 4.1% | 24.29 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | GOKO | 4.0% | 24.92 | 7 |
| 8 | 3 | MAGIC SUPREME | 3.6% | 27.40 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | PLANET FLYER | 3.5% | 28.72 | 13 |
| 10 | 13 | VIVA MAMA | 3.0% | 33.28 | 11 |
| 11 | 12 | STAR PRESENT | 2.9% | 34.57 | 10 |
| 12 | 10 | JOYFUL FORTUNE | 1.5% | 68.38 | 1 |
| 13 | 14 | M M JOHNNY | 1.1% | 93.72 | 12 |
| 14 | 7 | ALL THE WAY | 0.8% | 120.12 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
10 18.5
PLACE
1 12.5
8 197.5
10 12.5
QUINELLA
1,10 41
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 507.5
1,10 20
8,10 320
TIERCE
10,1,8 2,876
TRIO
1,8,10 967
FIRST 4
1,4,8,10 932
QUARTET
10,1,8,4 14,942
3 PICK 1
A1 13
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
10/1 189
10/10 692