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Sha Tin · 2020-07-05

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. AWE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Moore, won by N, with CIRCUIT GLORY second and PICKEN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.34
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 AWE Closed strongly 1.21.34 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Moore 9 4.1 N
2 1 CIRCUIT GLORY Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 5.4 N
3 2 PICKEN Closed strongly A Hamelin · J Size 10 9.9 1/2
4 3 STAR OF YUEN LONG Led early B1 K H Chan · K L Man 5 7.3 3/4
5 13 ELIGERE Closed strongly J Moreira · Y S Tsui 2 4.2 1-3/4
6 7 WISDOM PATCH H1/TT1 B Shinn · C W Chang 14 202.0 2-1/2
7 4 RELENTLESS ME B/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte 8 8.8 4
8 12 ROMANTIC COMBO Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · C S Shum 12 104.0 6
9 8 URBAN DANCER TT M F Poon · T P Yung 1 73.0 6
10 5 SWIFT SPIRIT B/TT H W Lai · K H Ting 3 262.0 6-3/4
11 6 SUPERBELLA Closed strongly B H N Wong · F C Lor 4 210.0 8-3/4
12 14 NATURAL WINNER CP-/B1 M L Yeung · R Gibson 6 34.0 13-3/4
13 11 UNIQUE TREASURE P K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 9.1 15-3/4
14 10 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT T H So · C H Yip 13 60.0 19-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AWE2. CIRCUIT GLORY+0.05L3. PICKEN+0.5L4. STAR OF YUEN LONG+0.75L5. ELIGERE+1.75L6. WISDOM PATCH+2.5L7. RELENTLESS ME+4L8. ROMANTIC COMBO+6L9. URBAN DANCER+6L10. SWIFT SPIRIT+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ELIGERE (26.8%) finished 5th — the winner AWE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 13 ELIGERE 26.8% 3.73 5
2 4 RELENTLESS ME 12.6% 7.94 7
3 9 AWE 12.4% 8.03 1
4 2 PICKEN 9.8% 10.21 3
5 3 STAR OF YUEN LONG 9.3% 10.70 4
6 11 UNIQUE TREASURE 8.7% 11.54 13
7 1 CIRCUIT GLORY 8.6% 11.63 2
8 10 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS 4.7% 21.16 14
9 14 NATURAL WINNER 1.7% 58.69 12
10 7 WISDOM PATCH 1.6% 63.85 6
11 12 ROMANTIC COMBO 1.1% 92.01 8
12 6 SUPERBELLA 1.0% 98.70 11
13 8 URBAN DANCER 0.9% 112.63 9
14 5 SWIFT SPIRIT 0.8% 131.51 10
ELIGERERELENTLESS MEAWE — wonPICKENSTAR OF YUEN LONGUNIQUE TREASURECIRCUIT GLORYHINYUEN SWIFTNESSNATURAL WINNERWISDOM PATCHROMANTIC COMBOSUPERBELLAURBAN DANCERSWIFT SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 41

PLACE

1 20

2 21.5

9 18

QUINELLA

1,9 114

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 73

1,9 47

2,9 73.5

TIERCE

9,1,2 1,269

TRIO

1,2,9 293

FIRST 4

1,2,3,9 485

QUARTET

9,1,2,3 8,311

3 PICK 1

A1 26

A2

A3

All pools (1 more)

9TH DOUBLE

3/1 48

3/9 213