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Sha Tin · 2020-07-05

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PERFECT PAIR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by 3-1/2, with MISSION SMART second and VICTORIOUS LEADER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.20.80
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PERFECT PAIR Closed strongly SR 1.20.80 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting 1 3.5 3-1/2
2 10 MISSION SMART Closed strongly H/CP1 K C Leung · F C Lor 7 7.7 3-1/2
3 11 VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly T H So · C H Yip 12 86.0 4-1/4
4 13 GOLDEN MISSION Closed strongly B-/TT J Moreira · C W Chang 5 6.2 4-1/2
5 3 POWER KING H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 8 9.3 4-3/4
6 5 SUPER BULLET Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 4 43.0 6-3/4
7 14 NUNCHUKS Led early TT K H Chan · C Fownes 10 15.0 6-3/4
8 8 NOBLE DESIRE XB/B2 C L Chau · D J Whyte 13 17.0 7-3/4
9 2 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B K Teetan · W Y So 14 5.4 9-3/4
10 1 MONSTER KAKA B Shinn · D J Hall 11 19.0 10-1/2
11 12 FRESH POWER B/TT H N Wong · Y S Tsui 2 51.0 11-1/2
12 9 IMPECCABLE FELLOW B/H M L Yeung · R Gibson 6 23.0 12-3/4
13 7 EASY DAZZLING B/H C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 74.0 14
14 6 CIGAR BUDDIES H/CP1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 9 15.0 27-3/4
0 CITY LEGEND A Hamelin · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PERFECT PAIR2. MISSION SMART+3.5L3. VICTORIOUS LEADER+4.25L4. GOLDEN MISSION+4.5L5. POWER KING+4.75L6. SUPER BULLET+6.75L7. NUNCHUKS+6.75L8. NOBLE DESIRE+7.75L9. HANG'S DECISION+9.75L10. MONSTER KAKA+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PERFECT PAIR (22.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 PERFECT PAIR 22.1% 4.52 1
2 13 GOLDEN MISSION 21.4% 4.68 4
3 3 POWER KING 13.3% 7.54 5
4 2 HANG'S DECISION 6.7% 14.90 9
5 9 IMPECCABLE FELLOW 6.3% 15.87 12
6 6 CIGAR BUDDIES 6.1% 16.48 14
7 8 NOBLE DESIRE 5.5% 18.21 8
8 10 MISSION SMART 5.4% 18.41 2
9 1 MONSTER KAKA 4.2% 23.94 10
10 14 NUNCHUKS 3.0% 33.33 7
11 11 VICTORIOUS LEADER 2.6% 37.89 3
12 5 SUPER BULLET 1.3% 76.36 6
13 12 FRESH POWER 1.2% 84.10 11
14 7 EASY DAZZLING 0.9% 112.05 13
PERFECT PAIR — wonGOLDEN MISSIONPOWER KINGHANG'S DECISIONIMPECCABLE FELLOWCIGAR BUDDIESNOBLE DESIREMISSION SMARTMONSTER KAKANUNCHUKSVICTORIOUS LEADERSUPER BULLETFRESH POWEREASY DAZZLING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 35.5

PLACE

4 14.5

10 29

11 188.5

QUINELLA

4,10 157.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 63

4,11 506

10,11 994.5

TIERCE

4,10,11 14,268

TRIO

4,10,11 3,369

FIRST 4

4,10,11,13 3,514

QUARTET

4,10,11,13 74,684

3 PICK 1

A1 22.5

A2

A3

All pools (2 more)

6TH DOUBLE

2/4 301.5

2/10 123

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,4,7/2,9,12/Any Combination 3,219