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Sha Tin · 2020-07-05

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-07-05 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. EIGHT TRIGRAMS, ridden by M F Poon and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/4, with STRIKING MR C second and FORTUNE HAPPINESS third. The 3.7 favourite SUPER ALLIANCES finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS B 1.09.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · D J Hall 4 7.1 1-1/4
2 4 STRIKING MR C B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 2 5.1 1-1/4
3 2 FORTUNE HAPPINESS B J Moreira · K W Lui 10 13.0 3
4 6 SUPER ALLIANCES P K Teetan · J Size 12 3.7 4-1/4
5 8 SHIMMER AND SHINE PC1 C Schofield · C Fownes 11 22.0 7
6 1 GOLDIE FLANKER N Callan · K L Man 1 20.0 8-3/4
7 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY B Z Purton · K H Ting 7 8.0 9-3/4
8 11 COOL ACE B-/H2 M L Yeung · C W Chang 5 42.0 10
9 5 JUMBO ENGINE B/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte 6 56.0 13-1/4
10 12 MASTERWORK B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 31.0 14-1/2
11 10 VIVA COUNCIL V-/B1 H T Mo · L Ho 3 12.0 15-3/4
12 9 LITTLE THUNDER B A Hamelin · A T Millard 9 6.1 37-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EIGHT TRIGRAMS2. STRIKING MR C+1.25L3. FORTUNE HAPPINESS+3L4. SUPER ALLIANCES+4.25L5. SHIMMER AND SHINE+7L6. GOLDIE FLANKER+8.75L7. MOMENTUM GALAXY+9.75L8. COOL ACE+10L9. JUMBO ENGINE+13.25L10. MASTERWORK+14.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MOMENTUM GALAXY (17.5%) finished 7th — the winner EIGHT TRIGRAMS was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 MOMENTUM GALAXY 17.5% 5.72 7
2 4 STRIKING MR C 14.3% 6.98 2
3 9 LITTLE THUNDER 13.0% 7.67 12
4 6 SUPER ALLIANCES 12.1% 8.27 4
5 1 GOLDIE FLANKER 10.7% 9.33 6
6 2 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 8.4% 11.96 3
7 7 EIGHT TRIGRAMS 7.4% 13.56 1
8 10 VIVA COUNCIL 5.2% 19.14 11
9 5 JUMBO ENGINE 5.0% 20.02 9
10 8 SHIMMER AND SHINE 3.6% 28.13 5
11 11 COOL ACE 1.6% 63.42 8
12 12 MASTERWORK 1.2% 80.32 10
MOMENTUM GALAXYSTRIKING MR CLITTLE THUNDERSUPER ALLIANCESGOLDIE FLANKERFORTUNE HAPPINESSEIGHT TRIGRAMS — wonVIVA COUNCILJUMBO ENGINESHIMMER AND SHINECOOL ACEMASTERWORK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 71

PLACE

2 37

4 18

7 24.5

QUINELLA

4,7 190

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 110

2,7 196.5

4,7 69

TIERCE

7,4,2 4,400

TRIO

2,4,7 807

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 667

QUARTET

7,4,2,6 18,047

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,8,10/2,4,7 77,229

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 29

A3

A1

4TH DOUBLE

10/4 16

10/7 152