沙田 · 2020-10-18
第 4場
2020-10-18沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由V Borges策騎、P F Yiu訓練的BULLETPROOF勝出，贏出2-1/4。DECISIVE ACTION獲得亞軍；SEAWEED FORTUNE獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.7倍大熱門SEAWEED FORTUNE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | BULLETPROOF 後段發力 B 1.34.18 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 7 | 9.3 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION 後段發力 TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 12 | 6.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE 後段發力 CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 4.7 | 3 |
| 4 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR 後段發力 TT B Shinn · C W Chang | B Shinn | C W Chang | 10 | 62.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 後段發力 B1/TT K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | PRETTY BAUHINIA B- H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 8 | 120.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 3 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | FAST PACE H/P J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 11 | 6.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 14 | HAPPY WIN WIN 後段發力 TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 14 | 9.7 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | METHANE CP N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 1 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 2 | EZRA B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 9 | 8.2 | 7 |
| 12 | 11 | SALTO OLIMPICO 後段發力 B H N Wong · D J Hall | H N Wong | D J Hall | 13 | 221.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE E-/B M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 4 | 51.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 9 | ALLOY STAR 早段領放 B C Schofield · T P Yung | C Schofield | T P Yung | 5 | 104.0 | 12-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FAST PACE | 24.8% | 4.03 | 8 |
| 2 | 13 | CIRCUIT NUMBER ONE | 15.1% | 6.62 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | SEAWEED FORTUNE | 11.8% | 8.46 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | METHANE | 8.2% | 12.18 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | EZRA | 7.3% | 13.67 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | DECISIVE ACTION | 6.7% | 14.82 | 2 |
| 7 | 12 | BULLETPROOF | 5.9% | 16.82 | 1 |
| 8 | 3 | LEADING FORTUNE | 5.3% | 18.85 | 13 |
| 9 | 14 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 4.6% | 21.95 | 9 |
| 10 | 8 | KUNGFUMASTER PANDA | 4.5% | 22.06 | 5 |
| 11 | 11 | SALTO OLIMPICO | 1.7% | 58.89 | 12 |
| 12 | 7 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 1.7% | 59.32 | 4 |
| 13 | 10 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 1.2% | 85.67 | 6 |
| 14 | 9 | ALLOY STAR | 1.1% | 93.72 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 93
PLACE
1 27.5
5 18
12 30.5
QUINELLA
1,12 366.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 71
1,12 119.5
5,12 70
FORECAST
12,1 779
TIERCE
12,1,5 3,662
TRIO
1,5,12 532
FIRST 4
1,5,7,12 7,062
QUARTET
12,1,5,7 161,771
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,6/1,5,12 104,096
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 25.5
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/1 937
3/12 5,487.5