沙田 · 2020-10-18
第 10場
2020-10-18沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由N Callan策騎、J Size訓練的HEZA BEAUTY勝出，贏出3/4。THE HULK獲得亞軍；TAKING AIM獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。4.5倍大熱門ARMOR STAR跑獲第13名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | HEZA BEAUTY 後段發力 E 1.22.04 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） N Callan · J Size | N Callan | J Size | 12 | 6.4 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | THE HULK 後段發力 J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 6 | 5.9 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | TAKING AIM C Schofield · D J Whyte | C Schofield | D J Whyte | 11 | 28.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | EMERALD SPUR 後段發力 B/TT C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 1 | 6.7 | 1 |
| 5 | 12 | ROMANTIC COMBO 後段發力 B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 14 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | TOP SCORE TT M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 4 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 10 | 16.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 14 | CHARIZARD 後段發力 CP/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 8 | 23.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 4 | SMART PATCH B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 5 | 52.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 10 | 8 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE Z Purton · C W Chang | Z Purton | C W Chang | 7 | 5.7 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 13 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 1 | A A AGILITY H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 9 | 163.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 13 | ARMOR STAR 早段領放 V K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 2 | 4.5 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | TELECOM ELITE V1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 218.0 | 7-3/4 |
| — | 0 | MARVEL DRAGON K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | ARMOR STAR | 29.1% | 3.44 | 13 |
| 2 | 5 | THE HULK | 19.2% | 5.22 | 2 |
| 3 | 6 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 12.1% | 8.29 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | HEZA BEAUTY | 9.0% | 11.17 | 1 |
| 5 | 8 | PRESIDENT'S CHOICE | 7.1% | 14.15 | 10 |
| 6 | 7 | EMERALD SPUR | 4.5% | 22.27 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 4.2% | 23.93 | 7 |
| 8 | 4 | SMART PATCH | 3.0% | 33.06 | 9 |
| 9 | 12 | ROMANTIC COMBO | 3.0% | 33.59 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | TAKING AIM | 2.9% | 34.50 | 3 |
| 11 | 14 | CHARIZARD | 2.8% | 35.61 | 8 |
| 12 | 11 | TOP SCORE | 2.4% | 41.90 | 6 |
| 13 | 10 | TELECOM ELITE | 0.5% | 206.05 | 14 |
| 14 | 1 | A A AGILITY | 0.4% | 256.92 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 64.5
PLACE
3 70.5
5 21.5
9 23
QUINELLA
5,9 251
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 269
3,9 379
5,9 88.5
FORECAST
9,5 563
TIERCE
9,5,3 10,989
TRIO
3,5,9 2,525
FIRST 4
3,5,7,9 4,510
QUARTET
9,5,3,7 92,986
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 24
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,10/3,5,9 13,330
9TH DOUBLE
3/5 25
3/9 189.5
SIX UP
11,12/4,9/3,4/3,4/3,10/5,9 1,556
12/9/4/4/3/9 11,793
3 [K Teetan] —
TREBLE
4/3/5 81
4/3/9 558