沙田 · 2020-10-18
第 5場
2020-10-18沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、W Y So訓練的SUPER RED DRAGON勝出，贏出N。ONE HAPPY STAR獲得亞軍；TRIPLE TRIPLE獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門TRIPLE TRIPLE跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT 1.09.07 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 4 | 5.6 | N |
| 2 | 11 | ONE HAPPY STAR M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 1 | 45.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | TRIPLE TRIPLE V Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 3 | 3.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | CHEERFUL DAYS C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 5 | 7.6 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | WINNING STEED K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 9 | 47.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 11 | 8.2 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | RHAPSODY C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 7 | 45.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 7 | SPARKY STAR B J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 2 | 6.2 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | HONEST WAY CP/TT2 M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 13 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 13 | RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu | V Borges | P F Yiu | 8 | 215.0 | 6 |
| 11 | 6 | RED MAJESTY B Shinn · D A Hayes | B Shinn | D A Hayes | 6 | 58.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | SHANGHAI POWER C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 14 | 277.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 13 | 2 | GRATWICK TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 12 | 163.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 14 | 4 | ABOVE ALL XB A Hamelin · A T Millard | A Hamelin | A T Millard | 10 | 6.6 | 10 |
| — | 0 | NOBLE CONSORT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SPARKY STAR | 26.1% | 3.83 | 8 |
| 2 | 1 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 18.6% | 5.38 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | DIAMOND PEGASUS | 12.6% | 7.91 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER RED DRAGON | 9.3% | 10.73 | 1 |
| 5 | 5 | CHEERFUL DAYS | 7.9% | 12.60 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | RHAPSODY | 6.3% | 15.85 | 7 |
| 7 | 4 | ABOVE ALL | 5.5% | 18.30 | 14 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING STEED | 4.0% | 24.83 | 5 |
| 9 | 3 | HONEST WAY | 3.2% | 31.70 | 9 |
| 10 | 2 | GRATWICK | 1.9% | 52.06 | 13 |
| 11 | 6 | RED MAJESTY | 1.7% | 57.58 | 11 |
| 12 | 11 | ONE HAPPY STAR | 1.4% | 71.17 | 2 |
| 13 | 14 | SHANGHAI POWER | 0.7% | 134.12 | 12 |
| 14 | 13 | RIGHTEOUS WIN | 0.7% | 149.14 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 56
PLACE
1 14.5
11 97
12 19
QUINELLA
11,12 1,118
QUINELLA PLACE
1,11 214.5
1,12 40.5
11,12 291.5
FORECAST
12,11 1,584
TIERCE
12,11,1 7,897
TRIO
1,11,12 931
FIRST 4
1,5,11,12 1,638
QUARTET
12,11,1,5 46,246
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 21
A2 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
12/11 783
12/12 493.5