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Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER RED DRAGON, ridden by A Badel and trained by W Y So, won by N, with ONE HAPPY STAR second and TRIPLE TRIPLE third. The 3.3 favourite TRIPLE TRIPLE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SUPER RED DRAGON B/TT 1.09.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · W Y So 4 5.6 N
2 11 ONE HAPPY STAR M F Poon · C H Yip 1 45.0 N
3 1 TRIPLE TRIPLE V Z Purton · F C Lor 3 3.3 1-1/2
4 5 CHEERFUL DAYS C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 7.6 1-1/2
5 8 WINNING STEED K Teetan · K H Ting 9 47.0 1-3/4
6 10 DIAMOND PEGASUS B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 8.2 2
7 9 RHAPSODY C Schofield · J Size 7 45.0 3-1/2
8 7 SPARKY STAR B J Moreira · D J Hall 2 6.2 4-1/4
9 3 HONEST WAY CP/TT2 M L Yeung · K L Man 13 14.0 5-1/2
10 13 RIGHTEOUS WIN B V Borges · P F Yiu 8 215.0 6
11 6 RED MAJESTY B Shinn · D A Hayes 6 58.0 6-1/4
12 14 SHANGHAI POWER C Wong · Y S Tsui 14 277.0 6-3/4
13 2 GRATWICK TT H T Mo · T P Yung 12 163.0 8-1/4
14 4 ABOVE ALL XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 10 6.6 10
0 NOBLE CONSORT H W Lai · C S Shum

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER RED DRAGON2. ONE HAPPY STAR+0.05L3. TRIPLE TRIPLE+1.5L4. CHEERFUL DAYS+1.5L5. WINNING STEED+1.75L6. DIAMOND PEGASUS+2L7. RHAPSODY+3.5L8. SPARKY STAR+4.25L9. HONEST WAY+5.5L10. RIGHTEOUS WIN+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SPARKY STAR (26.1%) finished 8th — the winner SUPER RED DRAGON was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SPARKY STAR 26.1% 3.83 8
2 1 TRIPLE TRIPLE 18.6% 5.38 3
3 10 DIAMOND PEGASUS 12.6% 7.91 6
4 12 SUPER RED DRAGON 9.3% 10.73 1
5 5 CHEERFUL DAYS 7.9% 12.60 4
6 9 RHAPSODY 6.3% 15.85 7
7 4 ABOVE ALL 5.5% 18.30 14
8 8 WINNING STEED 4.0% 24.83 5
9 3 HONEST WAY 3.2% 31.70 9
10 2 GRATWICK 1.9% 52.06 13
11 6 RED MAJESTY 1.7% 57.58 11
12 11 ONE HAPPY STAR 1.4% 71.17 2
13 14 SHANGHAI POWER 0.7% 134.12 12
14 13 RIGHTEOUS WIN 0.7% 149.14 10
SPARKY STARTRIPLE TRIPLEDIAMOND PEGASUSSUPER RED DRAGON — wonCHEERFUL DAYSRHAPSODYABOVE ALLWINNING STEEDHONEST WAYGRATWICKRED MAJESTYONE HAPPY STARSHANGHAI POWERRIGHTEOUS WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 56

PLACE

1 14.5

11 97

12 19

QUINELLA

11,12 1,118

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 214.5

1,12 40.5

11,12 291.5

FORECAST

12,11 1,584

TIERCE

12,11,1 7,897

TRIO

1,11,12 931

FIRST 4

1,5,11,12 1,638

QUARTET

12,11,1,5 46,246

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE

12/11 783

12/12 493.5