Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WINNING DREAMER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with SCORES OF FUN second and CHICKEN DANCE third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.96

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	WINNING DREAMER 1.08.96 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · F C Lor	C Y Ho	F C Lor	9	132 lb	2.3	1/2
2	10	SCORES OF FUN TT J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	12	117 lb	5.6	1/2
3	6	CHICKEN DANCE B1 Z Purton · P O'Sullivan	Z Purton	P O'Sullivan	3	124 lb	2.8	1-1/2
4	1	CIRCUIT SIX B1 K C Leung · K L Man	K C Leung	K L Man	6	133 lb	42.0	2-1/4
5	2	TRANSCENDENT TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	1	132 lb	11.0	2-1/4
6	12	MOERAKI B M Chadwick · K H Ting	M Chadwick	K H Ting	2	116 lb	20.0	2-1/2
7	5	AWE B Shinn · D A Hayes	B Shinn	D A Hayes	5	124 lb	50.0	2-1/2
8	13	BRIGHT VISION B M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	13	112 lb	105.0	2-1/2
9	14	MASTER ALBERT B/E/TT V Borges · W Y So	V Borges	W Y So	4	114 lb	45.0	4-1/4
10	11	HAPPY WARRIOR H H T Mo · C Fownes	H T Mo	C Fownes	11	113 lb	302.0	7-1/4
11	9	STARZ HERO H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	14	121 lb	264.0	8-1/2
12	4	ORION PATCH B1/TT1 M L Yeung · K W Lui	M L Yeung	K W Lui	7	127 lb	132.0	10-1/2
13	7	SHOUSON PC-/B2 C Wong · A T Millard	C Wong	A T Millard	8	118 lb	86.0	11-1/4
14	8	GLORIFIED FIRE TT1 A Hamelin · D J Whyte	A Hamelin	D J Whyte	10	121 lb	192.0	33-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21

The model's top pick SCORES OF FUN (31.8%) finished 2nd — the winner WINNING DREAMER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	10	SCORES OF FUN	31.8%	3.15	2	5.6
2	3	WINNING DREAMER	31.8%	3.15	1	2.3
3	6	CHICKEN DANCE	21.2%	4.71	3	2.8
4	14	MASTER ALBERT	2.5%	39.86	9	45.0
5	12	MOERAKI	2.1%	48.39	6	20.0
6	2	TRANSCENDENT	1.9%	52.78	5	11.0
7	7	SHOUSON	1.6%	63.42	13	86.0
8	5	AWE	1.5%	68.41	7	50.0
9	8	GLORIFIED FIRE	1.4%	72.10	14	192.0
10	13	BRIGHT VISION	1.2%	81.63	8	105.0
11	4	ORION PATCH	0.9%	106.77	12	132.0
12	1	CIRCUIT SIX	0.9%	113.88	4	42.0
13	9	STARZ HERO	0.7%	139.80	11	264.0
14	11	HAPPY WARRIOR	0.6%	169.52	10	302.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 23

PLACE

3 11.5

6 12.5

10 18

QUINELLA

3,10 52

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 17.5

3,10 23

6,10 32

FORECAST

3,10 96

TIERCE

3,10,6 194

TRIO

3,6,10 40

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 279

QUARTET

3,10,6,1 2,887

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 12.5

A2 —

A3 —

8TH DOUBLE

4/3 71

4/10 50

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