Sha Tin · 2020-10-18
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WISHFUL THINKER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with COMPUTER PATCH second and RATTAN third. The 2.4 favourite COMPUTER PATCH finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER B- 1.07.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 1 | 45.0 | SH |
| 2 | 6 | COMPUTER PATCH TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 2.4 | SH |
| 3 | 5 | RATTAN B A Hamelin · R Gibson | A Hamelin | R Gibson | 3 | 31.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 5.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | BIG PARTY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 5 | 9.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | VOYAGE WARRIOR C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 2 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 7 | PERFECT MATCH B/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 4 | 2.7 | 4-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | COMPUTER PATCH | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 1 | HOT KING PRAWN | 25.0% | 4.00 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | PERFECT MATCH | 15.6% | 6.41 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | BIG PARTY | 6.6% | 15.19 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 6.2% | 16.08 | 6 |
| 6 | 5 | RATTAN | 3.7% | 27.15 | 3 |
| 7 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER | 2.2% | 45.42 | 1 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 458.5
PLACE
3 67
5 40
6 14
QUINELLA
3,6 557.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,5 338
3,6 125.5
5,6 65.5
FORECAST
3,6 1,744
TIERCE
3,6,5 14,332
TRIO
3,5,6 2,040
FIRST 4
1,3,5,6 706
QUARTET
3,6,5,1 32,158
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
4/3 6,151
4/6 61.5
3 PICK 1
A3 186
A2 —
A1 —