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Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 2000m Course B+2 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 5 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING AGILITY, ridden by K Teetan and trained by L Ho, won by 3/4, with SKY GEM second and FORTUNE PATROL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite SKY GEM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 2.02.32
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 AMAZING AGILITY Closed strongly SR/TT 2.02.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · L Ho 10 7.1 3/4
2 1 SKY GEM Closed strongly J Moreira · C Fownes 11 4.3 3/4
3 7 FORTUNE PATROL Closed strongly B/H/XB A Hamelin · A T Millard 7 9.7 1-1/2
4 4 YOU HAVE MY WORD Closed strongly B C Schofield · T P Yung 6 8.4 1-1/2
5 10 PROUD SKY V M L Yeung · L Ho 2 11.0 2-1/4
6 2 HAY RUN XB K C Leung · L Ho 3 13.0 2-1/2
7 11 YOUNG GLORY B- H N Wong · D E Ferraris 4 51.0 2-3/4
8 6 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS Closed strongly B/TT1 N Callan · C W Chang 8 12.0 4
9 9 JOY N FUN LEGEND V-/TT H T Mo · T P Yung 5 101.0 5-1/2
10 8 STRAPPING BAUHINIA C Y Ho · Y S Tsui 9 6.7 5-3/4
11 3 HOME WIN Led early CP B Shinn · C W Chang 1 5.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING AGILITY2. SKY GEM+0.75L3. FORTUNE PATROL+1.5L4. YOU HAVE MY WORD+1.5L5. PROUD SKY+2.25L6. HAY RUN+2.5L7. YOUNG GLORY+2.75L8. ENJOYABLE SUCCESS+4L9. JOY N FUN LEGEND+5.5L10. STRAPPING BAUHINIA+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SKY GEM (23.1%) finished 2nd — the winner AMAZING AGILITY was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 SKY GEM 23.1% 4.33 2
2 3 HOME WIN 13.7% 7.30 11
3 8 STRAPPING BAUHINIA 10.8% 9.29 10
4 2 HAY RUN 10.4% 9.58 6
5 6 ENJOYABLE SUCCESS 9.2% 10.90 8
6 7 FORTUNE PATROL 8.2% 12.14 3
7 5 AMAZING AGILITY 7.9% 12.72 1
8 4 YOU HAVE MY WORD 6.8% 14.62 4
9 10 PROUD SKY 5.6% 17.71 5
10 9 JOY N FUN LEGEND 2.3% 43.99 9
11 11 YOUNG GLORY 2.0% 51.22 7
SKY GEMHOME WINSTRAPPING BAUHINIAHAY RUNENJOYABLE SUCCESSFORTUNE PATROLAMAZING AGILITY — wonYOU HAVE MY WORDPROUD SKYJOY N FUN LEGENDYOUNG GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 71

PLACE

1 16

5 23.5

7 28.5

QUINELLA

1,5 193

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 68

1,7 74

5,7 100

FORECAST

5,1 373

TIERCE

5,1,7 2,504

TRIO

1,5,7 530

FIRST 4

1,4,5,7 698

QUARTET

5,1,7,4 17,130

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 27

A3