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Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W Y So 3 11.0 NOSE
2 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 7 7.0 NOSE
3 0 CARE FREE PRINCE B K H Chan · K L Man 6 50.0 3/4
4 0 MARVELOUS FANS Closed strongly E C Y Ho · J Size 8 20.0 3/4
5 0 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B J Moreira · W Y So 9 3.1 1-1/4
6 0 WONDER EXPRESS Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · K H Ting 14 9.2 1-3/4
7 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly H- M Chadwick · D J Hall 1 12.0 1-3/4
8 0 COLONEL Led early B-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 15.0 2-1/2
9 0 ALL JOYFUL V2 C Schofield · T P Yung 13 20.0 3-1/2
10 0 PERFECT TO PLAY TT C Wong · C Fownes 10 84.0 3-3/4
11 0 ATHENA H/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 2 38.0 5-1/4
12 0 CENTENARY IBIS B/XB/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 11 305.0 6-1/4
13 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 226.0 7-3/4
14 0 MERRYGOWIN B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 12 3.9 14-1/4
— 0 NORDIC WARRIOR A Hamelin · R Gibson — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HANG'S DECISION, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W Y So, won by NOSE, with MORE THAN ENOUGH second and CARE FREE PRINCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite COPARTNER ERA finished 5th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANG'S DECISION—2. MORE THAN ENOUGH+0.05L3. CARE FREE PRINCE+0.75L4. MARVELOUS FANS+0.75L5. COPARTNER ERA+1.25L6. WONDER EXPRESS+1.75L7. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT+1.75L8. COLONEL+2.5L9. ALL JOYFUL+3.5L10. PERFECT TO PLAY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick COPARTNER ERA (31.4%) finished 5th — the winner HANG'S DECISION was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 COPARTNER ERA 31.4% 3.18 5
2 0 MERRYGOWIN 16.9% 5.90 14
3 0 MARVELOUS FANS 10.3% 9.69 4
4 0 WONDER EXPRESS 6.7% 14.91 6
5 0 ALL JOYFUL 6.1% 16.52 9
6 0 MORE THAN ENOUGH 5.4% 18.66 2
7 0 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 5.3% 18.90 7
8 0 ATHENA 3.8% 26.53 11
9 0 PERFECT TO PLAY 3.7% 27.26 10
10 0 COLONEL 3.5% 28.45 8
11 0 CARE FREE PRINCE 3.5% 28.80 3
12 0 HANG'S DECISION 2.6% 38.65 1
13 0 CENTENARY IBIS 0.5% 209.34 12
14 0 FORTUNE TRIPLE 0.4% 235.54 13
COPARTNER ERAMERRYGOWINMARVELOUS FANSWONDER EXPRESSALL JOYFULMORE THAN ENOUGHBUNDLE OF DELIGHTATHENAPERFECT TO PLAYCOLONELCARE FREE PRINCEHANG'S DECISION — wonCENTENARY IBISFORTUNE TRIPLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 114.5

PLACE

3 94.5

4 34

5 20

QUINELLA

4,5 321

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 399.5

3,5 282

4,5 101.5

FORECAST

4,5 714

TIERCE

4,5,3 11,071

TRIO

3,4,5 2,479

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 7,104

QUARTET

4,5,3,6 158,475

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/4 873

5/5 62

3 PICK 1

A2 26

A1 —

A3 —