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Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. HANG'S DECISION, ridden by M F Poon and trained by W Y So, won by NOSE, with MORE THAN ENOUGH second and CARE FREE PRINCE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite COPARTNER ERA finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.22.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HANG'S DECISION Closed strongly B 1.22.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · W Y So 3 11.0 NOSE
2 5 MORE THAN ENOUGH Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · A S Cruz 7 7.0 NOSE
3 3 CARE FREE PRINCE B K H Chan · K L Man 6 50.0 3/4
4 6 MARVELOUS FANS Closed strongly E C Y Ho · J Size 8 20.0 3/4
5 14 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B J Moreira · W Y So 9 3.1 1-1/4
6 13 WONDER EXPRESS Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · K H Ting 14 9.2 1-3/4
7 2 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT Closed strongly H- M Chadwick · D J Hall 1 12.0 1-3/4
8 8 COLONEL Led early B-/V1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 5 15.0 2-1/2
9 7 ALL JOYFUL V2 C Schofield · T P Yung 13 20.0 3-1/2
10 10 PERFECT TO PLAY TT C Wong · C Fownes 10 84.0 3-3/4
11 12 ATHENA H/TT K Teetan · C H Yip 2 38.0 5-1/4
12 11 CENTENARY IBIS B/XB/SR1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte 11 305.0 6-1/4
13 9 FORTUNE TRIPLE H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 226.0 7-3/4
14 1 MERRYGOWIN B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 12 3.9 14-1/4
0 NORDIC WARRIOR A Hamelin · R Gibson

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HANG'S DECISION2. MORE THAN ENOUGH+0.05L3. CARE FREE PRINCE+0.75L4. MARVELOUS FANS+0.75L5. COPARTNER ERA+1.25L6. WONDER EXPRESS+1.75L7. BUNDLE OF DELIGHT+1.75L8. COLONEL+2.5L9. ALL JOYFUL+3.5L10. PERFECT TO PLAY+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick COPARTNER ERA (31.4%) finished 5th — the winner HANG'S DECISION was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 COPARTNER ERA 31.4% 3.18 5
2 1 MERRYGOWIN 16.9% 5.90 14
3 6 MARVELOUS FANS 10.3% 9.69 4
4 13 WONDER EXPRESS 6.7% 14.91 6
5 7 ALL JOYFUL 6.1% 16.52 9
6 5 MORE THAN ENOUGH 5.4% 18.66 2
7 2 BUNDLE OF DELIGHT 5.3% 18.90 7
8 12 ATHENA 3.8% 26.53 11
9 10 PERFECT TO PLAY 3.7% 27.26 10
10 8 COLONEL 3.5% 28.45 8
11 3 CARE FREE PRINCE 3.5% 28.80 3
12 4 HANG'S DECISION 2.6% 38.65 1
13 11 CENTENARY IBIS 0.5% 209.34 12
14 9 FORTUNE TRIPLE 0.4% 235.54 13
COPARTNER ERAMERRYGOWINMARVELOUS FANSWONDER EXPRESSALL JOYFULMORE THAN ENOUGHBUNDLE OF DELIGHTATHENAPERFECT TO PLAYCOLONELCARE FREE PRINCEHANG'S DECISION — wonCENTENARY IBISFORTUNE TRIPLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 114.5

PLACE

3 94.5

4 34

5 20

QUINELLA

4,5 321

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 399.5

3,5 282

4,5 101.5

FORECAST

4,5 714

TIERCE

4,5,3 11,071

TRIO

3,4,5 2,479

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 7,104

QUARTET

4,5,3,6 158,475

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/4 873

5/5 62

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 26

A3