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Sha Tin · 2020-10-18

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-10-18 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. RESOLUTE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-3/4, with SUPER ALLIANCES second and STAR SUPERIOR third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.33
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 RESOLUTE XB-/B 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 6 3.9 1-3/4
2 4 SUPER ALLIANCES P M Chadwick · J Size 10 11.0 1-3/4
3 10 STAR SUPERIOR C Y Ho · C W Chang 9 15.0 3-1/4
4 8 HERO STAR TT N Callan · K L Man 7 6.7 5-1/4
5 6 DOLLAR REWARD P/TT A Hamelin · C S Shum 2 24.0 5-1/4
6 12 GO BALLISTIC SR/TT H W Lai · D E Ferraris 11 49.0 6-3/4
7 5 SPEED TO EXCEED H M F Poon · D J Hall 12 144.0 7-1/4
8 7 SUNNY AND GOLD H/TT Z Purton · C H Yip 8 9.6 7-1/2
9 3 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK CP-/B2 K C Leung · W Y So 1 10.0 9
10 2 STRIKING MR C B/TT B Shinn · T P Yung 3 9.2 9-1/2
11 11 SUPER KIN TT C Schofield · C Fownes 4 12.0 11-1/2
12 1 FORTUNE HAPPINESS B J Moreira · K W Lui 5 5.2 12-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RESOLUTE2. SUPER ALLIANCES+1.75L3. STAR SUPERIOR+3.25L4. HERO STAR+5.25L5. DOLLAR REWARD+5.25L6. GO BALLISTIC+6.75L7. SPEED TO EXCEED+7.25L8. SUNNY AND GOLD+7.5L9. GOODLUCK GOODLUCK+9L10. STRIKING MR C+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2020-21
The model's top pick SUNNY AND GOLD (21.7%) finished 8th — the winner RESOLUTE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SUNNY AND GOLD 21.7% 4.61 8
2 1 FORTUNE HAPPINESS 16.9% 5.91 12
3 9 RESOLUTE 12.8% 7.84 1
4 11 SUPER KIN 11.3% 8.86 11
5 8 HERO STAR 9.9% 10.12 4
6 2 STRIKING MR C 5.6% 17.91 10
7 4 SUPER ALLIANCES 5.2% 19.16 2
8 3 GOODLUCK GOODLUCK 4.9% 20.58 9
9 10 STAR SUPERIOR 4.4% 22.92 3
10 6 DOLLAR REWARD 3.7% 27.10 5
11 12 GO BALLISTIC 2.9% 34.62 6
12 5 SPEED TO EXCEED 0.9% 116.45 7
SUNNY AND GOLDFORTUNE HAPPINESSRESOLUTE — wonSUPER KINHERO STARSTRIKING MR CSUPER ALLIANCESGOODLUCK GOODLUCKSTAR SUPERIORDOLLAR REWARDGO BALLISTICSPEED TO EXCEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 39

PLACE

4 33.5

9 16.5

10 37.5

QUINELLA

4,9 253

QUINELLA PLACE

4,9 90.5

4,10 230.5

9,10 92.5

FORECAST

9,4 663

TIERCE

9,4,10 4,326

TRIO

4,9,10 822

FIRST 4

4,8,9,10 1,647

QUARTET

9,4,10,8 36,354

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 22.5

5TH DOUBLE

12/4 146.5

12/9 249.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,5,12/1,11,12/4,9,10 8,302,915

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,5,12/1,11,12/Any Combination 6,441