跑馬地 · 2020-12-16
第 4場
2020-12-16跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K H Ting訓練的NOBLE BIRTH勝出，贏出1-3/4。BRANDING POWER獲得亞軍；DAILY BEAUTY獲得季軍。2.2倍大熱門A SMILE LIKE YOURS跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | NOBLE BIRTH H2 1.09.87 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 3 | 2.9 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | BRANDING POWER A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 2 | 7.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | DAILY BEAUTY TT T Piccone · C Fownes | T Piccone | C Fownes | 11 | 19.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 7 | PEAK TO PEAK K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 7 | 14.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 3 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 2.2 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 6 | EVER FORCE B1/TT1 A Hamelin · C S Shum | A Hamelin | C S Shum | 4 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | CHAMPION PRIDE TT B Shinn · D E Ferraris | B Shinn | D E Ferraris | 10 | 184.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON B-/V1/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 12 | 14.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 12 | MANY GAINS V- V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 1 | 110.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | BULLISH BROTHER B/TT K H Chan · A S Cruz | K H Chan | A S Cruz | 9 | 65.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | QUICK REPLY M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 6 | 111.0 | 8 |
| 12 | 4 | KING'S HORN B2 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 5 | 203.0 | 9 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 31.1% | 3.22 | 5 |
| 2 | 11 | NOBLE BIRTH | 15.5% | 6.45 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | PEAK TO PEAK | 13.7% | 7.29 | 4 |
| 4 | 10 | DAILY BEAUTY | 9.5% | 10.51 | 3 |
| 5 | 2 | PRANCE DRAGON | 6.7% | 14.94 | 8 |
| 6 | 5 | BRANDING POWER | 6.6% | 15.06 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | EVER FORCE | 3.9% | 25.89 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | QUICK REPLY | 3.9% | 25.92 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | BULLISH BROTHER | 3.5% | 28.36 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 | MANY GAINS | 2.6% | 37.85 | 9 |
| 11 | 9 | CHAMPION PRIDE | 1.7% | 59.35 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | KING'S HORN | 1.3% | 76.41 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 29
PLACE
5 18.5
10 33
11 13
QUINELLA
5,11 77.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,10 102.5
5,11 33.5
10,11 60.5
FORECAST
11,5 217
TIERCE
11,5,10 993
TRIO
5,10,11 284
FIRST 4
5,7,10,11 579
QUARTET
11,5,10,7 6,693
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,9/5,10,11 25,434
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 12.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/5 131
2/11 530