沙田 · 2021-04-17
第 10場
2021-04-17沙田第10場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由C L Chau策騎、D J Whyte訓練的TAKING AIM勝出，贏出3。PERFECT TO GREAT獲得亞軍；MOERAKI獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。4.1倍大熱門CHANCHENG PRINCE跑獲第10名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | TAKING AIM 一路領先 SR 1.22.29 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 11 | 7.7 | 3 |
| 2 | 1 | PERFECT TO GREAT 後段發力 V Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 8 | 4.8 | 3 |
| 3 | 7 | MOERAKI B H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 7 | 24.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA 後段發力 CP K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 142.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | JUNEAU PARK 後段發力 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 5 | 5.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 6 | TRUST ME H M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 7.6 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | PIANO SOLO V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 1 | 20.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT TT M L Yeung · P F Yiu | M L Yeung | P F Yiu | 10 | 12.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 13 | JOLLY HONOUR 後段發力 B/TT2 C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 14 | 166.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 3 | CHANCHENG PRINCE P C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 4.1 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 14 | WHAT A LEGEND 後段發力 B H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 13 | 114.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | FLYING VICTORY H/TT K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 5 | BEAUTY SPIRIT CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 3 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 2 | SMART LEADER B/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 6 | 115.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PERFECT TO GREAT | 26.7% | 3.75 | 2 |
| 2 | 4 | JUNEAU PARK | 17.7% | 5.66 | 5 |
| 3 | 3 | CHANCHENG PRINCE | 12.5% | 7.97 | 10 |
| 4 | 5 | BEAUTY SPIRIT | 8.6% | 11.58 | 13 |
| 5 | 7 | MOERAKI | 6.6% | 15.04 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | FLYING VICTORY | 6.4% | 15.53 | 12 |
| 7 | 6 | TRUST ME | 6.0% | 16.80 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | EXCELLENT CHARIOT | 4.0% | 25.14 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | TAKING AIM | 3.6% | 28.05 | 1 |
| 10 | 12 | PIANO SOLO | 2.7% | 37.09 | 7 |
| 11 | 2 | SMART LEADER | 1.8% | 56.53 | 14 |
| 12 | 13 | JOLLY HONOUR | 1.6% | 60.68 | 9 |
| 13 | 14 | WHAT A LEGEND | 1.3% | 77.36 | 11 |
| 14 | 9 | TURQUOISE ALPHA | 0.5% | 207.31 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 77
PLACE
1 17
7 74.5
8 26.5
QUINELLA
1,8 201.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,7 204
1,8 78
7,8 347.5
FORECAST
8,1 573
TIERCE
8,1,7 9,932
TRIO
1,7,8 1,991
FIRST 4
1,7,8,9 33,465
QUARTET
8,1,7,9 504,393
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 22
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,4,11/1,7,8 685,368
9TH DOUBLE
2/1 58.5
2/8 756
SIX UP
1,3/4,10/3,11/5,9/2,11/1,8 123,508
2 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9/2/1 1,286
9/2/8 9,624