跑馬地 · 2021-04-21
第 3場
2021-04-21跑馬地第3場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的GREAT HARVEST勝出，贏出1-1/2。JADE THEATRE獲得亞軍；ALLOY KING獲得季軍。3.4倍大熱門WONDER BRAHMA跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | GREAT HARVEST 1.10.54 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 10 | 4.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | JADE THEATRE B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 9 | ALLOY KING B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 3 | 10.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 11 | WONDER BRAHMA B/H J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 7 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | AFTER ME B H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 6 | 38.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | SMILING FACE B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 12.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 7 | 10 | TIGERLAD B/TT M Chadwick · A T Millard | M Chadwick | A T Millard | 12 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 8 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY B/TT V Borges · C S Shum | V Borges | C S Shum | 2 | 9.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | VICTORIOUS LEADER K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 9 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 12 | HAPPY WINNER P-/H2 M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 5 | 50.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 1 | WINNER'S HEART C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 4 | 7.8 | 5 |
| 12 | 5 | STAR SUPERIOR T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 8 | 98.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | WONDER BRAHMA | 18.3% | 5.46 | 4 |
| 2 | 7 | GREAT HARVEST | 12.6% | 7.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | WINNER'S HEART | 10.9% | 9.13 | 11 |
| 4 | 9 | ALLOY KING | 10.2% | 9.76 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | SMILING FACE | 9.2% | 10.81 | 6 |
| 6 | 6 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 9.2% | 10.89 | 9 |
| 7 | 8 | YEE CHEONG LUCKY | 8.1% | 12.42 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | TIGERLAD | 7.9% | 12.63 | 7 |
| 9 | 3 | JADE THEATRE | 5.3% | 18.99 | 2 |
| 10 | 2 | AFTER ME | 3.0% | 33.39 | 5 |
| 11 | 5 | STAR SUPERIOR | 2.9% | 34.37 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPY WINNER | 2.3% | 43.41 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 48.5
PLACE
3 27
7 17.5
9 25.5
QUINELLA
3,7 168.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 61.5
3,9 160
7,9 65
FORECAST
7,3 398
TIERCE
7,3,9 2,694
TRIO
3,7,9 710
FIRST 4
3,7,9,11 565
QUARTET
7,3,9,11 14,473
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
1/3 207.5
1/7 674
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20
A3 —