沙田 · 2021-07-11
第 10場
2021-07-11沙田第10場，Class 1，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C L Chau策騎、K W Lui訓練的LUCKY PATCH勝出，贏出2-1/4。STRONGER獲得亞軍；SHINING ACE獲得季軍。頭馬以2.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY PATCH B-/H/V1 1.07.61 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 1 | 2.6 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 2 | STRONGER SR/XB C Y Ho · D J Whyte | C Y Ho | D J Whyte | 3 | 4.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | SHINING ACE B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 2 | 7.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR B Shinn · P F Yiu | B Shinn | P F Yiu | 9 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | COMPUTER PATCH TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 11 | 8.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 12 | 28.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN B- V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 6 | 54.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | FAT TURTLE B K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 8 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | HANDSOME BO BO TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 5 | 18.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | RED DESERT A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 13 | 73.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | HINCHINLOVE B/TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 10 | 16.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | GRATEFUL HEART CP/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 4 | 59.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 5 | BUDDIES H H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 7 | 76.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | LUCKY PATCH | 33.5% | 2.98 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | SHINING ACE | 17.0% | 5.89 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | STRONGER | 10.7% | 9.36 | 2 |
| 4 | 1 | COMPUTER PATCH | 7.9% | 12.62 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | HINCHINLOVE | 6.7% | 14.97 | 11 |
| 6 | 9 | RED DESERT | 3.9% | 25.96 | 10 |
| 7 | 12 | HONG KONG WIN | 3.7% | 27.37 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | FAT TURTLE | 3.2% | 31.06 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | HANDSOME BO BO | 3.0% | 33.06 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 2.8% | 35.94 | 4 |
| 11 | 3 | WISHFUL THINKER | 2.7% | 36.67 | 6 |
| 12 | 5 | BUDDIES | 2.6% | 38.84 | 13 |
| 13 | 8 | GRATEFUL HEART | 2.3% | 42.56 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
7 26
PLACE
2 15
7 14
13 24
QUINELLA
2,7 69.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,7 27.5
2,13 66.5
7,13 40.5
FORECAST
7,2 99
TIERCE
7,2,13 520
TRIO
2,7,13 121
FIRST 4
2,4,7,13 419
QUARTET
7,2,13,4 4,587
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 16
A2 —
A3 —
9TH DOUBLE
10/2 15
10/7 60
WINNING TRAINER
B4 11.5
B2 —
B3 —
B1 —