沙田 · 2021-07-11
第 9場
2021-07-11沙田第9場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的DROPS OF GOD勝出，贏出1-1/2。IMA SINGLE MAN獲得亞軍；TRUST ME獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DROPS OF GOD 1.08.55 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 1.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 3 | IMA SINGLE MAN B/H/TT N Callan · A S Cruz | N Callan | A S Cruz | 8 | 5.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | TRUST ME H V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 5 | 17.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | LOCKHEED B/TT R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 12 | 111.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT K Teetan · K L Man | K Teetan | K L Man | 6 | 7.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | SAUVESTRE C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 1 | 15.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH P- B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 14 | 98.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 4 | FANTASY B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 4 | 32.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | BIG BROOK B1 T Piccone · C Fownes | T Piccone | C Fownes | 9 | 39.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TELECOM JAC K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 2 | 81.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 11 | 7 | LET'S DO IT C Schofield · D J Hall | C Schofield | D J Hall | 11 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 13 | SHOUSON B H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 10 | 119.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 13 | 12 | FEARLESS FIRE XB C Wong · D A Hayes | C Wong | D A Hayes | 13 | 128.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | ELIGERE B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 3 | 14.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | DROPS OF GOD | 51.2% | 1.95 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | DUBLIN STAR | 9.2% | 10.91 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | SAUVESTRE | 6.7% | 14.97 | 6 |
| 4 | 3 | IMA SINGLE MAN | 5.3% | 18.72 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | ELIGERE | 4.5% | 22.03 | 14 |
| 6 | 4 | FANTASY | 4.2% | 23.63 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | LET'S DO IT | 3.6% | 27.62 | 11 |
| 8 | 14 | TRUST ME | 3.4% | 29.16 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | BIG BROOK | 3.4% | 29.29 | 9 |
| 10 | 11 | TELECOM JAC | 2.2% | 46.12 | 10 |
| 11 | 13 | SHOUSON | 1.8% | 55.53 | 12 |
| 12 | 12 | FEARLESS FIRE | 1.7% | 59.56 | 13 |
| 13 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH | 1.7% | 60.16 | 7 |
| 14 | 1 | LOCKHEED | 1.1% | 90.39 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
10 18.5
PLACE
3 17
10 11
14 36
QUINELLA
3,10 54
QUINELLA PLACE
3,10 24
3,14 113.5
10,14 49.5
FORECAST
10,3 95
TIERCE
10,3,14 622
TRIO
3,10,14 175
FIRST 4
1,3,10,14 3,411
QUARTET
10,3,14,1 25,311
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13.5
8TH DOUBLE
10/3 161
10/10 486