沙田 · 2021-07-11
第 11場
2021-07-11沙田第11場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的BLAZE WARRIOR勝出，贏出3/4。MOERAKI獲得亞軍；TEAM POWER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BLAZE WARRIOR 後段發力 TT 1.20.95 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 1 | 1.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | MOERAKI 後段發力 B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 7 | 44.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | TEAM POWER C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 6 | 11.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 14 | MASTER HERO 後段發力 XB/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 14 | 5.7 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | UNCLE STEVE 後段發力 CP/SR/XB C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 8 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | RUN RUN COOL 早段領放 B B Shinn · F C Lor | B Shinn | F C Lor | 13 | 99.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 1 | CRAIG'S STAR 後段發力 B H Bentley · C S Shum | H Bentley | C S Shum | 4 | 31.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 3 | WIN WIN FIGHTER 後段發力 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 87.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 13 | KAI XIN DRAGON C Wong · D A Hayes | C Wong | D A Hayes | 2 | 15.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 4 | APACHE PASS R Maia · P O'Sullivan | R Maia | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 284.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | ENCOURAGED B V Borges · K L Man | V Borges | K L Man | 3 | 170.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 11 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 B H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 9 | 50.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | LINCOLN BRIGHT H/XB/TT K C Leung · R Gibson | K C Leung | R Gibson | 12 | 278.0 | 13 |
| 14 | 5 | HELENA BABY P- T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 5 | 118.0 | 13-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | BLAZE WARRIOR | 56.9% | 1.76 | 1 |
| 2 | 14 | MASTER HERO | 10.1% | 9.90 | 4 |
| 3 | 2 | UNCLE STEVE | 5.7% | 17.62 | 5 |
| 4 | 1 | CRAIG'S STAR | 5.6% | 18.01 | 7 |
| 5 | 9 | TEAM POWER | 4.3% | 23.29 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 4.2% | 23.66 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | MOERAKI | 3.6% | 27.55 | 2 |
| 8 | 13 | KAI XIN DRAGON | 2.8% | 36.01 | 9 |
| 9 | 3 | WIN WIN FIGHTER | 2.0% | 50.78 | 8 |
| 10 | 5 | HELENA BABY | 1.8% | 55.28 | 14 |
| 11 | 7 | RUN RUN COOL | 1.4% | 69.64 | 6 |
| 12 | 10 | ENCOURAGED | 0.9% | 111.55 | 11 |
| 13 | 4 | APACHE PASS | 0.5% | 193.09 | 10 |
| 14 | 8 | LINCOLN BRIGHT | 0.3% | 378.78 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 15
PLACE
6 10.1
9 24.5
12 62
QUINELLA
6,12 232
QUINELLA PLACE
6,9 35
6,12 86
9,12 396
FORECAST
6,12 359
TIERCE
6,12,9 2,311
TRIO
6,9,12 569
FIRST 4
6,9,12,14 504
QUARTET
6,12,9,14 8,240
全部彩池（另 5 項）
10TH DOUBLE
7/6 42
7/12 226
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 15
A3 —
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,13/6,9,12 10,855
SIX UP
3,7/5,9/1,10/3,10/2,7/6,12 984
7/9/10/10/7/6 136,042
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
10/7/6 104
10/7/12 635