沙田 · 2021-07-11
第 1場
2021-07-11沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Hamelin策騎、K H Ting訓練的ALLOY KING勝出，贏出3/4。LUCKY MARYKNOLL獲得亞軍；SHANGHAI POWER獲得季軍。2.3倍大熱門ONE STEP AHEAD跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ALLOY KING B-/CP2 1.09.33 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 1 | 14.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 7 | 16.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | SHANGHAI POWER B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 13 | 18.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 12 | 14.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT J Moreira · P O'Sullivan | J Moreira | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 2.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | TELECOM MISSILE TT N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 9 | 5.5 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 13 | FIRE AND GOLD B/TT V Borges · C H Yip | V Borges | C H Yip | 2 | 38.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 4 | SPICY GRILL B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 5.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | RAGING BLAZE P-/TT C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 4 | 82.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 9 | GLORIOUS BUDDY K C Leung · D J Hall | K C Leung | D J Hall | 11 | 38.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | SEVENTH SEA SR H W Lai · D E Ferraris | H W Lai | D E Ferraris | 8 | 37.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | WINNING WARRIOR B C Wong · K L Man | C Wong | K L Man | 3 | 61.0 | 6 |
| 13 | 7 | KELMIMI WINS SR/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 14 | 18.0 | 12-3/4 |
| 14 | 12 | COOL ACE SR H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 10 | 114.0 | 14-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | TELECOM MISSILE | 26.2% | 3.82 | 6 |
| 2 | 8 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 24.9% | 4.02 | 5 |
| 3 | 4 | SPICY GRILL | 12.7% | 7.87 | 8 |
| 4 | 1 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 6.9% | 14.57 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | SHANGHAI POWER | 6.3% | 15.95 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | KELMIMI WINS | 5.6% | 17.90 | 13 |
| 7 | 11 | ALLOY KING | 3.9% | 25.82 | 1 |
| 8 | 14 | WINNING WARRIOR | 2.8% | 35.22 | 12 |
| 9 | 3 | DAY DAY RICH | 2.8% | 36.13 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | SEVENTH SEA | 1.7% | 60.19 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | GLORIOUS BUDDY | 1.6% | 61.53 | 10 |
| 12 | 13 | FIRE AND GOLD | 1.6% | 61.94 | 7 |
| 13 | 12 | COOL ACE | 1.6% | 63.71 | 14 |
| 14 | 2 | RAGING BLAZE | 1.6% | 63.92 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 146.5
PLACE
1 35.5
10 49
11 33
QUINELLA
1,11 816.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,10 252
1,11 240.5
10,11 283.5
FORECAST
11,1 1,872
TIERCE
11,1,10 19,386
TRIO
1,10,11 3,127
FIRST 4
1,3,10,11 14,614
QUARTET
11,1,10,3 314,892
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 33
A1 —