沙田 · 2021-07-11
第 5場
2021-07-11沙田第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、D A Hayes訓練的LUCKY WITH YOU勝出，贏出1/2。MILLENNIUM FALCON獲得亞軍；DRAGON BABY獲得季軍。頭馬以1.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY WITH YOU 1.08.43 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 10 | 1.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 14 | MILLENNIUM FALCON CP-/H V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 11 | 126.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 2 | DRAGON BABY TT B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 4 | 16.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | FLYING DRAGON N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 7 | 5.6 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | VIVA HUNTER C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 5 | 64.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | SKY SHOW TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 1 | 7.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | ALL BEAUTY H Bentley · F C Lor | H Bentley | F C Lor | 13 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | GOOD RUNNER H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 12 | 20.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SHINING ON C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 69.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | INGENIOUS FELLOW B/TT T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 14 | 381.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | TREASURE OF FIELD K Teetan · K H Ting | K Teetan | K H Ting | 8 | 19.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 12 | 8 | I BELIEVE IN MAGIC R Maia · P O'Sullivan | R Maia | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 172.0 | 9 |
| 13 | 13 | SCHOLAR H/XB1/TT- H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 6 | 456.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 3 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/TT K C Leung · A S Cruz | K C Leung | A S Cruz | 9 | 49.0 | 11-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | FLYING DRAGON | 24.0% | 4.16 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 23.3% | 4.29 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | SKY SHOW | 16.9% | 5.93 | 6 |
| 4 | 5 | ALL BEAUTY | 11.7% | 8.56 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | TREASURE OF FIELD | 4.7% | 21.43 | 11 |
| 6 | 2 | DRAGON BABY | 3.7% | 26.70 | 3 |
| 7 | 10 | SHINING ON | 3.3% | 29.99 | 9 |
| 8 | 7 | GOOD RUNNER | 3.2% | 30.87 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 2.8% | 36.01 | 14 |
| 10 | 12 | VIVA HUNTER | 2.1% | 47.55 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | MILLENNIUM FALCON | 1.7% | 58.42 | 2 |
| 12 | 8 | I BELIEVE IN MAGIC | 1.5% | 64.90 | 12 |
| 13 | 13 | SCHOLAR | 0.6% | 169.91 | 13 |
| 14 | 9 | INGENIOUS FELLOW | 0.4% | 238.41 | 10 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 17.5
PLACE
2 33
4 10.1
14 179.5
QUINELLA
4,14 801
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 53.5
2,14 1,183.5
4,14 251.5
FORECAST
4,14 1,084
TIERCE
4,14,2 8,445
TRIO
2,4,14 3,017
FIRST 4
2,4,6,14 2,619
QUARTET
4,14,2,6 50,027
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,9/2,4,14 522,226
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 13.5
A2 —
4TH DOUBLE
9/4 66.5
9/14 684