沙田 · 2021-09-05
第 3場
2021-09-05沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的PACKING VICTORY勝出，贏出2-3/4。AMIGOS GIGGLE獲得亞軍；HAPPY TIME獲得季軍。頭馬以1.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING VICTORY TT 1.09.23 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 1.5 | 2-3/4 |
| 2 | 5 | AMIGOS GIGGLE B J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 8 | 6.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 3 | 12 | HAPPY TIME TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 9 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | FANTASTIC FABIO C Wong · C H Yip | C Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 105.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 2 | BIZ POWER B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan | K C Leung | P O'Sullivan | 12 | 15.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER B L Ferraris · A T Millard | L Ferraris | A T Millard | 7 | 70.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER K H Chan · C H Yip | K H Chan | C H Yip | 11 | 52.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | NIMBLE NIMBUS H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 10 | 21.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | SIGHT HERO CP C Schofield · D A Hayes | C Schofield | D A Hayes | 1 | 9.9 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA B K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 5 | 16.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | WAH MAY LUCK H-/B/TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 6 | 151.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 7 | THETA HEDGE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 109.0 | 8-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | PACKING VICTORY | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 15.7% | 6.37 | 2 |
| 3 | 8 | SIGHT HERO | 13.9% | 7.21 | 9 |
| 4 | 3 | CASA DE FORCA | 8.6% | 11.61 | 10 |
| 5 | 12 | HAPPY TIME | 5.1% | 19.57 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | LITTLE THUNDER | 3.7% | 27.24 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 2.5% | 40.30 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | FANTASTIC FABIO | 2.3% | 42.65 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | BIZ POWER | 2.3% | 43.67 | 5 |
| 10 | 6 | NIMBLE NIMBUS | 2.0% | 49.66 | 8 |
| 11 | 7 | THETA HEDGE | 1.0% | 101.12 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | WAH MAY LUCK | 0.9% | 109.39 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
1 15
PLACE
1 11
5 16.5
12 26
QUINELLA
1,5 45.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 21.5
1,12 43
5,12 86
FORECAST
1,5 62
TIERCE
1,5,12 474
TRIO
1,5,12 170
FIRST 4
1,5,11,12 1,580
QUARTET
1,5,12,11 9,668
全部彩池（另 2 項）
2ND DOUBLE
5/1 166
5/5 62
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 12.5