沙田 · 2021-09-05
第 6場
2021-09-05沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、D A Hayes訓練的NERVOUS WITNESS勝出，贏出3。CIRCUIT SEVEN獲得亞軍；GLENEALY GENERALS獲得季軍。頭馬以1.3倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NERVOUS WITNESS 0.55.71 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D A Hayes | Z Purton | D A Hayes | 10 | 1.3 | 3 |
| 2 | 7 | CIRCUIT SEVEN H/B1/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 2 | 82.0 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | GLENEALY GENERALS B H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 14 | 8.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | SPICY SO GOOD B/TT J Moreira · C S Shum | J Moreira | C S Shum | 4 | 16.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | GOODMANSHIP B V Borges · D J Whyte | V Borges | D J Whyte | 3 | 71.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX B T Piccone · R Gibson | T Piccone | R Gibson | 5 | 16.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | BALTIC WHISPER TT K H Chan · C S Shum | K H Chan | C S Shum | 6 | 64.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 2 | FABULOUS EIGHT TT C L Chau · P F Yiu | C L Chau | P F Yiu | 11 | 14.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 8 | G ONE EXCELLENT SR/TT A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 13 | 22.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | SO AWESOME XB- H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 12 | 44.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | E SPRINTER SR1/XB1 M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 9 | 179.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 14 | WHO LOVES THE ACE B/TT K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 8 | 113.0 | 10-1/2 |
| 13 | 5 | KOWLOON EAST STAR H1 K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 7 | 42.0 | 13-3/4 |
| 14 | 10 | WONDERFUL FANTASY C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 1 | 208.0 | 15-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 26.1% | 3.83 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | SPICY SO GOOD | 21.6% | 4.64 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | CORDYCEPS SIX | 10.2% | 9.83 | 6 |
| 4 | 13 | GOODMANSHIP | 6.0% | 16.70 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | BALTIC WHISPER | 5.7% | 17.59 | 7 |
| 6 | 8 | G ONE EXCELLENT | 5.0% | 20.07 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | KOWLOON EAST STAR | 4.8% | 20.65 | 13 |
| 8 | 2 | FABULOUS EIGHT | 4.4% | 22.48 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | GLENEALY GENERALS | 4.1% | 24.39 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | CIRCUIT SEVEN | 3.4% | 29.22 | 2 |
| 11 | 14 | WHO LOVES THE ACE | 3.2% | 30.82 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | E SPRINTER | 2.4% | 41.09 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | SO AWESOME | 2.3% | 44.32 | 10 |
| 14 | 10 | WONDERFUL FANTASY | 0.8% | 133.27 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
6 13
PLACE
6 11
7 118.5
9 17.5
QUINELLA
6,7 386
QUINELLA PLACE
6,7 149.5
6,9 21.5
7,9 449
FORECAST
6,7 419
TIERCE
6,7,9 2,901
TRIO
6,7,9 527
FIRST 4
3,6,7,9 1,772
QUARTET
6,7,9,3 24,271
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 13
A3 —
5TH DOUBLE
1/6 117.5
1/7 1,100
TRIPLE TRIO
2,4,12/1,8,13/6,7,9 6,821,637
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,4,12/1,8,13/Any Combination 5,055