沙田 · 2021-09-05
第 1場
2021-09-05沙田第1場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由K C Leung策騎、C H Yip訓練的VICTORIOUS LEADER勝出，贏出1/2。VIVA POPCORN獲得亞軍；JOLLY FOREVER獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門FORMULA EXCEL跑獲第12名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | VICTORIOUS LEADER 後段發力 1.22.66 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | VIVA POPCORN 後段發力 H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | JOLLY FOREVER 後段發力 XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 10 | 67.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | FIGURES TWO 後段發力 H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 14 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 1 | OFF THE REEL XB T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 3 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 7 | 54.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | SHINEALOT V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 6.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | GENERAL TRUMP 早段領放 TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 11 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 6 | THIS IS CHARISMA 後段發力 B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 6.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 10 | SMART HUNTER SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 2 | DAZZLING FEELING B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 8.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 4 | FORMULA EXCEL TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 3.7 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 11 | SHANGHAI GRACE C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 19.0 | 11 |
| 14 | 8 | JUNGLE BLAZE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 42.0 | 15 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | FORMULA EXCEL | 25.3% | 3.96 | 12 |
| 2 | 10 | SMART HUNTER | 15.7% | 6.35 | 10 |
| 3 | 6 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 10.1% | 9.91 | 9 |
| 4 | 14 | SHINEALOT | 10.0% | 9.95 | 7 |
| 5 | 7 | VIVA POPCORN | 6.5% | 15.38 | 2 |
| 6 | 2 | DAZZLING FEELING | 6.4% | 15.75 | 11 |
| 7 | 12 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 4.9% | 20.42 | 1 |
| 8 | 8 | JUNGLE BLAZE | 4.6% | 21.57 | 14 |
| 9 | 11 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 4.5% | 22.42 | 13 |
| 10 | 9 | FIGURES TWO | 4.2% | 23.86 | 4 |
| 11 | 13 | JOLLY FOREVER | 3.2% | 31.67 | 3 |
| 12 | 1 | OFF THE REEL | 2.3% | 43.53 | 5 |
| 13 | 5 | GENERAL TRUMP | 1.2% | 81.04 | 8 |
| 14 | 3 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 1.1% | 89.92 | 6 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 118
PLACE
7 29
12 33.5
13 152
QUINELLA
7,12 415.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,12 136
7,13 605
12,13 841.5
FORECAST
12,7 969
TIERCE
12,7,13 37,559
TRIO
7,12,13 5,590
FIRST 4
7,9,12,13 28,188
QUARTET
12,7,13,9 766,123
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 27.5
A1 —