Sha Tin · 2021-09-05
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | VICTORIOUS LEADER Closed strongly 1.22.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 6 | 11.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 12 | 7.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | JOLLY FOREVER Closed strongly XB/TT A Hamelin · W Y So | A Hamelin | W Y So | 10 | 67.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 0 | FIGURES TWO Closed strongly H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 14 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | OFF THE REEL XB T Piccone · P F Yiu | T Piccone | P F Yiu | 5 | 10.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 7 | 54.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 0 | SHINEALOT V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 1 | 6.7 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | GENERAL TRUMP Led early TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 11 | 40.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 13 | 6.8 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 0 | SMART HUNTER SR/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 39.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | DAZZLING FEELING B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 8.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 0 | FORMULA EXCEL TT J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 4 | 3.7 | 9-1/4 |
| 13 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE C Wong · Y S Tsui | C Wong | Y S Tsui | 8 | 19.0 | 11 |
| 14 | 0 | JUNGLE BLAZE B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 42.0 | 15 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-05 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. VICTORIOUS LEADER, ridden by K C Leung and trained by C H Yip, won by 1/2, with VIVA POPCORN second and JOLLY FOREVER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite FORMULA EXCEL finished 12th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | FORMULA EXCEL | 25.3% | 3.96 | 12 |
| 2 | 0 | SMART HUNTER | 15.7% | 6.35 | 10 |
| 3 | 0 | THIS IS CHARISMA | 10.1% | 9.91 | 9 |
| 4 | 0 | SHINEALOT | 10.0% | 9.95 | 7 |
| 5 | 0 | VIVA POPCORN | 6.5% | 15.38 | 2 |
| 6 | 0 | DAZZLING FEELING | 6.4% | 15.75 | 11 |
| 7 | 0 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 4.9% | 20.42 | 1 |
| 8 | 0 | JUNGLE BLAZE | 4.6% | 21.57 | 14 |
| 9 | 0 | SHANGHAI GRACE | 4.5% | 22.42 | 13 |
| 10 | 0 | FIGURES TWO | 4.2% | 23.86 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | JOLLY FOREVER | 3.2% | 31.67 | 3 |
| 12 | 0 | OFF THE REEL | 2.3% | 43.53 | 5 |
| 13 | 0 | GENERAL TRUMP | 1.2% | 81.04 | 8 |
| 14 | 0 | ALL BEST FRIENDS | 1.1% | 89.92 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 118
PLACE
7 29
12 33.5
13 152
QUINELLA
7,12 415.5
QUINELLA PLACE
7,12 136
7,13 605
12,13 841.5
FORECAST
12,7 969
TIERCE
12,7,13 37,559
TRIO
7,12,13 5,590
FIRST 4
7,9,12,13 28,188
QUARTET
12,7,13,9 766,123
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 27.5