Sha Tin · 2021-09-05
Race 5
Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-05 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY MARYKNOLL, ridden by R Maia and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/4, with SPEEDY DRAGON second and ONE STEP AHEAD third. The 3.7 favourite ZACIAN finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL TT 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 7 | 8.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | SPEEDY DRAGON B/TT H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 3 | 27.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 13 | ONE STEP AHEAD B/TT- J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 14 | 7.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | UNIVERSAL CROWN B/XB/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.6 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 7 | FOX CHEUNGER B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 9.1 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | ZACIAN B/TT1 Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 3.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 12 | 11.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | VECTOR H-/B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 80.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 10 | ONE HAPPY STAR K C Leung · C H Yip | K C Leung | C H Yip | 4 | 11.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 3 | LUCKY PUZZLE SR K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 11 | 12.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | CENTENARY IBIS B/XB/TT H T Mo · A T Millard | H T Mo | A T Millard | 13 | 23.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE B C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 5 | 19.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 14 | MANY GAINS CP M F Poon · L Ho | M F Poon | L Ho | 2 | 89.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 14 | 11 | SUNNY SMILE TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 8 | 111.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | UNIVERSAL CROWN | 20.3% | 4.93 | 4 |
| 2 | 13 | ONE STEP AHEAD | 14.6% | 6.85 | 3 |
| 3 | 2 | ZACIAN | 12.6% | 7.91 | 6 |
| 4 | 7 | FOX CHEUNGER | 9.0% | 11.14 | 5 |
| 5 | 1 | LUCKY MARYKNOLL | 8.3% | 12.03 | 1 |
| 6 | 10 | ONE HAPPY STAR | 5.5% | 18.11 | 9 |
| 7 | 9 | KWAI CHUNG ELITE | 5.5% | 18.24 | 12 |
| 8 | 3 | LUCKY PUZZLE | 5.2% | 19.36 | 10 |
| 9 | 14 | MANY GAINS | 4.6% | 21.81 | 13 |
| 10 | 12 | CENTENARY IBIS | 4.1% | 24.11 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | DAY DAY RICH | 4.1% | 24.66 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 2.9% | 34.50 | 2 |
| 13 | 5 | VECTOR | 2.2% | 46.01 | 8 |
| 14 | 11 | SUNNY SMILE | 1.1% | 88.04 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 83.5
PLACE
1 26
8 72
13 22.5
QUINELLA
1,8 1,157.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,8 350
1,13 126
8,13 298.5
FORECAST
1,8 1,770
TIERCE
1,8,13 13,417
TRIO
1,8,13 2,394
FIRST 4
1,4,8,13 3,599
QUARTET
1,8,13,4 87,364
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 28
A1 —
A3 —
4TH DOUBLE
12/1 155.5
12/8 139