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Sha Tin · 2021-09-05

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-05 was Class 2 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/4, with MISTER SNOWDON second and TELECOM FIGHTERS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.30
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT Closed strongly CP/TT 1.21.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 11 4.0 2-1/4
2 9 MISTER SNOWDON Closed strongly SR A Badel · D J Whyte 4 5.1 2-1/4
3 11 TELECOM FIGHTERS Closed strongly M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 5 15.0 2-1/4
4 1 THE ROCK Closed strongly K H Chan · C Fownes 9 17.0 3-1/4
5 7 HIGHLAND FORTUNE K Teetan · K W Lui 6 13.0 3-3/4
6 12 ZEBROWSKI Closed strongly M L Yeung · C Fownes 3 102.0 4
7 5 MASTER MONTARO Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · D A Hayes 13 4.8 4-1/4
8 3 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 10 45.0 5-1/2
9 13 REGENCY BO BO B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 7 68.0 5-3/4
10 4 E STAR C Schofield · K L Man 1 7.3 6-1/4
11 8 KILINDINI TT1 L Ferraris · A T Millard 12 81.0 6-1/2
12 10 MR CROISSANT CP H W Lai · W Y So 2 122.0 9
13 6 ROMAN TURBO Led early SR/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 8 6.1 62-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT2. MISTER SNOWDON+2.25L3. TELECOM FIGHTERS+2.25L4. THE ROCK+3.25L5. HIGHLAND FORTUNE+3.75L6. ZEBROWSKI+4L7. MASTER MONTARO+4.25L8. ASSIMILATE+5.5L9. REGENCY BO BO+5.75L10. E STAR+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick MASTER MONTARO (13.4%) finished 7th — the winner CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MASTER MONTARO 13.4% 7.46 7
2 2 CALIFORNIADEEPSHOT 12.3% 8.11 1
3 4 E STAR 10.7% 9.34 10
4 1 THE ROCK 10.6% 9.44 4
5 11 TELECOM FIGHTERS 10.6% 9.45 3
6 7 HIGHLAND FORTUNE 10.5% 9.51 5
7 9 MISTER SNOWDON 9.7% 10.32 2
8 6 ROMAN TURBO 9.2% 10.83 13
9 13 REGENCY BO BO 4.0% 25.18 9
10 8 KILINDINI 2.9% 35.01 11
11 3 ASSIMILATE 2.3% 43.15 8
12 12 ZEBROWSKI 2.1% 47.33 6
13 10 MR CROISSANT 1.7% 59.07 12
MASTER MONTAROCALIFORNIADEEPSHOT — wonE STARTHE ROCKTELECOM FIGHTERSHIGHLAND FORTUNEMISTER SNOWDONROMAN TURBOREGENCY BO BOKILINDINIASSIMILATEZEBROWSKIMR CROISSANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40.5

PLACE

2 17.5

9 20

11 41

QUINELLA

2,9 126

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 52

2,11 102.5

9,11 148

FORECAST

2,9 239

TIERCE

2,9,11 2,159

TRIO

2,9,11 663

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 1,977

QUARTET

2,9,11,1 29,976

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A3

A1

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,9,11/2,9,11 50,180

9TH DOUBLE

9/2 165.5

9/9 34.5

SIX UP

1/6/9/8/9/2 82,574

1,8/6,7/9,11/2,8/3,9/2,9 2,141

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

8/9/2 811

8/9/9 183