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Sha Tin · 2021-09-05

Race 4

Class 1 GOOD 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-05 was Class 1 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NABOO ATTACK, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with LUCKY PATCH second and DUKE WAI third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.11
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 NABOO ATTACK 1.08.11 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 2.7 1
2 2 LUCKY PATCH H/V C L Chau · K W Lui 10 4.1 1
3 4 DUKE WAI B/H Z Purton · P O'Sullivan 7 7.9 1
4 8 WINNING DREAMER TT C Y Ho · F C Lor 1 5.6 3-1/2
5 10 CALIFORNIA RAD B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz 13 28.0 3-3/4
6 9 TOURBILLON DIAMOND B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 2 12.0 4
7 3 WISHFUL THINKER K C Leung · C H Yip 8 30.0 4
8 11 SHINING ACE B/TT J Moreira · J Size 12 23.0 4-1/2
9 5 RATTAN B2/TT1 C Schofield · R Gibson 9 26.0 4-3/4
10 6 BUDDIES H M Chadwick · A S Cruz 11 140.0 6
11 7 ELUSIVE STATE B/TT H Bentley · A T Millard 4 183.0 7-1/4
12 13 SPARKLING DRAGON TT H T Mo · A T Millard 3 24.0 8
13 1 AMAZING STAR V Borges · K H Ting 5 51.0 16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NABOO ATTACK2. LUCKY PATCH+1L3. DUKE WAI+1L4. WINNING DREAMER+3.5L5. CALIFORNIA RAD+3.75L6. TOURBILLON DIAMOND+4L7. WISHFUL THINKER+4L8. SHINING ACE+4.5L9. RATTAN+4.75L10. BUDDIES+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22
The model's top pick LUCKY PATCH (21.9%) finished 2nd — the winner NABOO ATTACK was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 LUCKY PATCH 21.9% 4.56 2
2 12 NABOO ATTACK 19.0% 5.27 1
3 9 TOURBILLON DIAMOND 9.5% 10.55 6
4 8 WINNING DREAMER 9.2% 10.85 4
5 4 DUKE WAI 8.9% 11.28 3
6 11 SHINING ACE 5.9% 16.81 8
7 13 SPARKLING DRAGON 5.8% 17.29 12
8 10 CALIFORNIA RAD 4.7% 21.18 5
9 7 ELUSIVE STATE 4.4% 22.68 11
10 5 RATTAN 3.4% 29.85 9
11 6 BUDDIES 2.8% 35.83 10
12 1 AMAZING STAR 2.5% 40.71 13
13 3 WISHFUL THINKER 2.1% 48.38 7
LUCKY PATCHNABOO ATTACK — wonTOURBILLON DIAMONDWINNING DREAMERDUKE WAISHINING ACESPARKLING DRAGONCALIFORNIA RADELUSIVE STATERATTANBUDDIESAMAZING STARWISHFUL THINKER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 27.5

PLACE

2 15.5

4 24

12 15

QUINELLA

2,12 66

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 54

2,12 29.5

4,12 54.5

FORECAST

12,2 130

TIERCE

12,2,4 514

TRIO

2,4,12 140

FIRST 4

2,4,8,12 107

QUARTET

12,2,4,8 1,315

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,5,12/2,4,12 2,754

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 18.5

A2

3RD DOUBLE

1/2 13.5

1/12 44