Sha Tin · 2021-09-05

Race 2

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course A 8 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2021-09-05 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FIRST RESPONDER, ridden by C L Chau and trained by D J Whyte, won by N, with ROCK YA HEART second and QUADRUPLE DOUBLE third. The 3.0 favourite SUPER AXIOM finished 5th.

Result

Official · 0.56.01

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	FIRST RESPONDER B 0.56.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · D J Whyte	C L Chau	D J Whyte	3	121 lb	7.5	N
2	6	ROCK YA HEART C Y Ho · K W Lui	C Y Ho	K W Lui	2	119 lb	47.0	N
3	4	QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT Z Purton · D J Hall	Z Purton	D J Hall	4	129 lb	3.5	1/2
4	3	CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	5	129 lb	8.6	1/2
5	7	SUPER AXIOM XB-/SR/TT C Schofield · D A Hayes	C Schofield	D A Hayes	8	119 lb	3.0	3/4
6	1	GOOD VIEW CLARICO H Bentley · C H Yip	H Bentley	C H Yip	1	133 lb	9.7	2-1/2
7	8	SUPER WIN DRAGON H-/TT A Badel · W Y So	A Badel	W Y So	7	118 lb	7.3	5-1/4
8	2	GREEN AEON H/TT J Moreira · C Fownes	J Moreira	C Fownes	6	130 lb	10.0	7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2021-22

The model's top pick FIRST RESPONDER (26.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	FIRST RESPONDER	26.3%	3.81	1	7.5
2	1	GOOD VIEW CLARICO	18.9%	5.28	6	9.7
3	4	QUADRUPLE DOUBLE	16.6%	6.04	3	3.5
4	2	GREEN AEON	13.4%	7.47	8	10.0
5	3	CALIFORNIA CONCORD	11.4%	8.74	4	8.6
6	7	SUPER AXIOM	5.9%	17.02	5	3.0
7	6	ROCK YA HEART	3.8%	26.46	2	47.0
8	8	SUPER WIN DRAGON	3.7%	26.80	7	7.3

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 75.5

PLACE

4 13

5 20

6 89

QUINELLA

5,6 1,377.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 42.5

4,6 190

5,6 303.5

FORECAST

5,6 2,619

TIERCE

5,6,4 8,545

TRIO

4,5,6 1,136

FIRST 4

3,4,5,6 1,277

QUARTET

5,6,4,3 38,552

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

12/5 751

12/6 1,341.5

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 26

A3 —

← Race 1 Race 3 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1000m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99