跑馬地 · 2021-09-08
第 4場
2021-09-08跑馬地第4場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的FORTUNE CARRIER勝出，贏出N。XPONENTIAL獲得亞軍；A SMILE LIKE YOURS獲得季軍。頭馬以2.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FORTUNE CARRIER B 1.10.26 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 5 | 2.0 | N |
| 2 | 5 | XPONENTIAL B/TT C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 7 | 7.5 | N |
| 3 | 11 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 13.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | RED MAJESTY B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 4.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | RUN THE TABLE H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 29.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | GOOD BEAUTY B/TT K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 8 | 31.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 6 | PASSING FASHION H-/TT1 H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 2 | 270.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 3 | 13.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 9 | 10 | STAY CHILL CP V Borges · W Y So | V Borges | W Y So | 6 | 120.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 4 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 9 | 13.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 3 | STRIVE FOR GLORY CP1/TT A Hamelin · F C Lor | A Hamelin | F C Lor | 12 | 116.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 35.0 | 7-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | RED MAJESTY | 25.7% | 3.89 | 4 |
| 2 | 9 | FORTUNE CARRIER | 23.5% | 4.25 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | XPONENTIAL | 11.7% | 8.51 | 2 |
| 4 | 11 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 9.5% | 10.50 | 3 |
| 5 | 4 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 6.7% | 14.87 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | AURORA PEGASUS | 5.7% | 17.41 | 8 |
| 7 | 12 | RUN THE TABLE | 5.6% | 17.97 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | GOOD BEAUTY | 3.4% | 29.33 | 6 |
| 9 | 3 | STRIVE FOR GLORY | 2.9% | 34.45 | 11 |
| 10 | 2 | NORDIC WARRIOR | 2.5% | 39.74 | 12 |
| 11 | 10 | STAY CHILL | 2.0% | 49.71 | 9 |
| 12 | 6 | PASSING FASHION | 0.6% | 169.34 | 7 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 20
PLACE
5 20.5
9 11
11 33.5
QUINELLA
5,9 86.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 34.5
5,11 137
9,11 43.5
FORECAST
9,5 175
TIERCE
9,5,11 1,079
TRIO
5,9,11 252
FIRST 4
5,8,9,11 175
QUARTET
9,5,11,8 3,840
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,6/5,9,11 57,078
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 13.5
3RD DOUBLE
6/5 71
6/9 162.5