跑馬地 · 2021-09-08
第 8場
2021-09-08跑馬地第8場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、W Y So訓練的DECISIVE TWELVE勝出，贏出2。SMILING CITY獲得亞軍；TRANSCENDENT獲得季軍。頭馬以2.5倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT 1.09.53 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 1 | 2.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | SMILING CITY CP/SR M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 2 | 9.2 | 2 |
| 3 | 2 | TRANSCENDENT CP/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz | C L Chau | A S Cruz | 10 | 18.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 3 | THE RUNNER K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 5 | 6.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | MERIDIAN GENIUS M F Poon · A T Millard | M F Poon | A T Millard | 7 | 8.3 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | HARRIER JET B V Borges · P O'Sullivan | V Borges | P O'Sullivan | 4 | 32.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 7 | LUCKY QUALITY C Schofield · C Fownes | C Schofield | C Fownes | 9 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | TELECOM ROCKET B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 6 | 5.6 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | VITRALITE XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 129.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 5 | GOOD HEALTH CP1 A Hamelin · D A Hayes | A Hamelin | D A Hayes | 3 | 41.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | RHAPSODY J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 11 | 9.7 | 7-3/4 |
| — | 1 | WINNING METHOD Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 33.2% | 3.01 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | RHAPSODY | 12.2% | 8.20 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | THE RUNNER | 9.7% | 10.30 | 4 |
| 4 | 12 | TELECOM ROCKET | 9.7% | 10.33 | 8 |
| 5 | 9 | MERIDIAN GENIUS | 7.9% | 12.61 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | LUCKY QUALITY | 7.0% | 14.20 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | TRANSCENDENT | 6.7% | 14.95 | 3 |
| 8 | 6 | HARRIER JET | 5.3% | 18.88 | 6 |
| 9 | 5 | GOOD HEALTH | 4.0% | 25.26 | 10 |
| 10 | 11 | SMILING CITY | 2.9% | 34.58 | 2 |
| 11 | 10 | VITRALITE | 1.4% | 72.80 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 25.5
PLACE
2 50
4 14
11 27
QUINELLA
4,11 154
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 87
2,11 207
4,11 58
FORECAST
4,11 244
TIERCE
4,11,2 3,391
TRIO
2,4,11 801
FIRST 4
2,3,4,11 1,047
QUARTET
4,11,2,3 18,623
全部彩池（另 5 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 25.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,6/2,11>1,4 105,683
7TH DOUBLE
3/1,4 30
3/11 101.5
SIX UP
1,6/5,9/2,3/6,8/3,6/1,4,11 1,746
6/9/2/8/3/1,4 229,210
1 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
8/3/1,4 704
8/3/11 1,443