沙田 · 2021-09-26
第 2場
2021-09-26沙田第2場，Class 3，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD (AWT)。由V Borges策騎、J Size訓練的ELON勝出，贏出N。NORTHERN DRAGON獲得亞軍；GUNNISON獲得季軍。3.3倍大熱門CALIFORNIA CONCORD跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ELON E/P 1.09.43 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） V Borges · J Size | V Borges | J Size | 12 | 31.0 | N |
| 2 | 7 | NORTHERN DRAGON H1/TT- H T Mo · D J Hall | H T Mo | D J Hall | 10 | 173.0 | N |
| 3 | 3 | GUNNISON K C Leung · Y S Tsui | K C Leung | Y S Tsui | 3 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | SUPER WIN DRAGON TT M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 11 | 43.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 3.3 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 10 | SUPER AXIOM SR-/P1/H2/TT J Moreira · D A Hayes | J Moreira | D A Hayes | 7 | 4.9 | 2 |
| 7 | 6 | MEGA HEART XB/TT T Piccone · C W Chang | T Piccone | C W Chang | 9 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE B-/TT Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 8 | 6.5 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING B/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 6 | 7.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH P2 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 23.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 9 | OUR CREED B M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 5 | 85.0 | 10-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | READY TO WIN B1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 2 | 8.3 | 14 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | SUPER AXIOM | 25.2% | 3.96 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | CALIFORNIA CONCORD | 18.0% | 5.55 | 5 |
| 3 | 5 | INVINCIBLE MISSILE | 13.2% | 7.60 | 8 |
| 4 | 8 | CANTSTOPTHEFEELING | 10.1% | 9.89 | 9 |
| 5 | 4 | READY TO WIN | 6.2% | 16.06 | 12 |
| 6 | 6 | MEGA HEART | 6.1% | 16.31 | 7 |
| 7 | 2 | SUNSET WATCH | 5.7% | 17.45 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | GUNNISON | 4.5% | 22.27 | 3 |
| 9 | 11 | ELON | 4.3% | 23.37 | 1 |
| 10 | 12 | SUPER WIN DRAGON | 4.2% | 23.94 | 4 |
| 11 | 7 | NORTHERN DRAGON | 1.4% | 71.37 | 2 |
| 12 | 9 | OUR CREED | 1.0% | 95.28 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 311.5
PLACE
3 30
7 276
11 82
QUINELLA
7,11 9,992.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 1,739.5
3,11 401
7,11 2,545.5
FORECAST
11,7 10,281
TIERCE
11,7,3 162,687
TRIO
3,7,11 28,898
FIRST 4
3,7,11,12 51,714
QUARTET
11,7,3,12 1,318,708
全部彩池（另 2 項）
1ST DOUBLE
1/7 1,128
1/11 2,221.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 27.5