跑馬地 · 2021-11-17
第 5場
2021-11-17跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K W Lui訓練的PARTY WARRIOR勝出，贏出1/2。HERE COMES TED獲得亞軍；A SMILE LIKE YOURS獲得季軍。頭馬以3.6倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PARTY WARRIOR H 1.10.07 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K W Lui | Z Purton | K W Lui | 3 | 3.6 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | HERE COMES TED B/TT L Ferraris · D E Ferraris | L Ferraris | D E Ferraris | 9 | 10.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 5 | 3.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | NOBLE DESIRE SR-/XB/CP2 C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 10 | CHIRON TT R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 6 | 7.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 3 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B- H Bentley · P F Yiu | H Bentley | P F Yiu | 11 | 52.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER B M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 2 | 9.5 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 6 | AMAZING NEWS H/XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 7 | 26.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | GOOD SHOT CP-/H1/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz | J Moreira | A S Cruz | 12 | 16.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 10 | 12 | MOON PEAKS B/H H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 1 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 8 | HYPERION TREE M Chadwick · T P Yung | M Chadwick | T P Yung | 4 | 86.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 2 | ARES K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 8 | 28.0 | 13-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | PARTY WARRIOR | 28.2% | 3.54 | 1 |
| 2 | 5 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 19.3% | 5.19 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | CHIRON | 12.3% | 8.14 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | GOOD SHOT | 8.3% | 12.12 | 9 |
| 5 | 7 | NOBLE DESIRE | 5.2% | 19.26 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 | ARES | 5.2% | 19.40 | 12 |
| 7 | 12 | MOON PEAKS | 5.0% | 19.87 | 10 |
| 8 | 1 | HERE COMES TED | 4.4% | 22.95 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | HYPERION TREE | 3.6% | 27.78 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | RED BRICK FIGHTER | 3.5% | 28.43 | 7 |
| 11 | 3 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 2.7% | 36.61 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | AMAZING NEWS | 2.4% | 41.85 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 36.5
PLACE
1 25.5
4 17
5 15
QUINELLA
1,4 210.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 76
1,5 60
4,5 28.5
FORECAST
4,1 362
TIERCE
4,1,5 781
TRIO
1,4,5 173
FIRST 4
1,4,5,7 506
QUARTET
4,1,5,7 9,453
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,7,10/1,4,5 24,481
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 25
4TH DOUBLE
2/1 102
2/4 306.5