跑馬地 · 2021-12-01
第 5場
2021-12-01跑馬地第5場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由J Moreira策騎、J Size訓練的A SMILE LIKE YOURS勝出，贏出N。PRANCE DRAGON獲得亞軍；WHAT A LEGEND獲得季軍。頭馬以3.1倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS 1.10.77 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 3.1 | N |
| 2 | 3 | PRANCE DRAGON B/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 10 | 15.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | WHAT A LEGEND B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | THETA HEDGE H/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 1 | 36.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | WINS ALL TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 2 | 39.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | LORIZ B-/CP2 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 4 | 4.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | TRUST ME H/B2 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 5.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H1/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 8 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 12.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | HANDSOME BOY B1 R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 3 | 118.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | EVER JOY XB/CP1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 114.0 | 11 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 31.4% | 3.18 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | WINS ALL | 19.4% | 5.16 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | TRUST ME | 12.2% | 8.18 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | PRANCE DRAGON | 8.1% | 12.42 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | LORIZ | 5.7% | 17.70 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | WHAT A LEGEND | 5.5% | 18.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | E LEGEND | 4.8% | 20.90 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 3.2% | 31.25 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | HANDSOME BOY | 2.9% | 34.55 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 2.5% | 40.52 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | EVER JOY | 2.3% | 42.70 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | THETA HEDGE | 2.1% | 47.08 | 4 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 31
PLACE
2 13.5
3 35
4 92.5
QUINELLA
2,3 197
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 63.5
2,4 193
3,4 467
FORECAST
2,3 284
TIERCE
2,3,4 4,655
TRIO
2,3,4 1,351
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 6,206
QUARTET
2,3,4,10 75,035
全部彩池（另 3 項）
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,5/2,3,4 18,103
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19.5
4TH DOUBLE
4/2 116
4/3 117.5