Happy Valley · 2021-12-01
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. A SMILE LIKE YOURS, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by N, with PRANCE DRAGON second and WHAT A LEGEND third. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS 1.10.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 7 | 3.1 | N |
| 2 | 3 | PRANCE DRAGON B/TT C Y Ho · T P Yung | C Y Ho | T P Yung | 10 | 15.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | WHAT A LEGEND B A Hamelin · K H Ting | A Hamelin | K H Ting | 12 | 37.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | THETA HEDGE H/TT V Borges · K W Lui | V Borges | K W Lui | 1 | 36.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | WINS ALL TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 11 | 5.6 | 2 |
| 6 | 5 | E LEGEND C L Chau · K L Man | C L Chau | K L Man | 2 | 39.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | LORIZ B-/CP2 M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 4 | 4.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | TRUST ME H/B2 M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 6 | 5.3 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 7 | KOKUSHI MUSOU H1/TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 8 | 13.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 5 | 12.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | HANDSOME BOY B1 R Maia · R Gibson | R Maia | R Gibson | 3 | 118.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | EVER JOY XB/CP1 M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 114.0 | 11 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | A SMILE LIKE YOURS | 31.4% | 3.18 | 1 |
| 2 | 8 | WINS ALL | 19.4% | 5.16 | 5 |
| 3 | 1 | TRUST ME | 12.2% | 8.18 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | PRANCE DRAGON | 8.1% | 12.42 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | LORIZ | 5.7% | 17.70 | 7 |
| 6 | 4 | WHAT A LEGEND | 5.5% | 18.30 | 3 |
| 7 | 5 | E LEGEND | 4.8% | 20.90 | 6 |
| 8 | 7 | KOKUSHI MUSOU | 3.2% | 31.25 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | HANDSOME BOY | 2.9% | 34.55 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 | TAKE WHAT YOU NEED | 2.5% | 40.52 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | EVER JOY | 2.3% | 42.70 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | THETA HEDGE | 2.1% | 47.08 | 4 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 31
PLACE
2 13.5
3 35
4 92.5
QUINELLA
2,3 197
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 63.5
2,4 193
3,4 467
FORECAST
2,3 284
TIERCE
2,3,4 4,655
TRIO
2,3,4 1,351
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 6,206
QUARTET
2,3,4,10 75,035
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,4,5/2,3,4 18,103
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 19.5
4TH DOUBLE
4/2 116
4/3 117.5