Happy Valley · 2021-12-01
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL WIN, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with DECISIVE TWELVE second and MEGA HEART third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOYFUL WIN B 0.57.14 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 9 | 2.7 | HD |
| 2 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 1 | 5.8 | HD |
| 3 | 8 | MEGA HEART XB/TT A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 10 | 67.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 9 | SERGEANT PEPPER Z Purton · Y S Tsui | Z Purton | Y S Tsui | 2 | 3.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 3 | FLYING GENIUS B/TT H N Wong · A S Cruz | H N Wong | A S Cruz | 7 | 53.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | EQUALETTA BLITZ B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 3 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | ESCAPE ROUTE E1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 4 | 16.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | BIRDSVILLE R Maia · D A Hayes | R Maia | D A Hayes | 11 | 34.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | TRIPLE TRIPLE CP M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 6 | 11.0 | 11-1/4 |
| — | 6 | PROPICE K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | — | — | — |
| — | 10 | TELECOM SMART B/TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 5 | 29.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | JOYFUL WIN | 25.8% | 3.87 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | ESCAPE ROUTE | 21.9% | 4.57 | 7 |
| 3 | 9 | SERGEANT PEPPER | 14.5% | 6.92 | 4 |
| 4 | 1 | DECISIVE TWELVE | 12.5% | 7.99 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 9.9% | 10.10 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | EQUALETTA BLITZ | 5.1% | 19.70 | 6 |
| 7 | 8 | MEGA HEART | 4.2% | 23.87 | 3 |
| 8 | 7 | BIRDSVILLE | 3.6% | 28.12 | 8 |
| 9 | 3 | FLYING GENIUS | 2.6% | 38.71 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 27.5
PLACE
1 17.5
5 13
8 112
QUINELLA
1,5 78.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 32
1,8 347
5,8 218.5
FORECAST
5,1 117
TIERCE
5,1,8 3,286
TRIO
1,5,8 1,002
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 577
QUARTET
5,1,8,9 13,182
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 14.5
A2 —
5TH DOUBLE
2/1 29.5
2/5,6 104