Happy Valley · 2021-12-01
Race 9
Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2021-12-01 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FAMILY FOLKS, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C W Chang, won by N, with THE RUNNER second and DIAMOND BRILLIANT third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAMILY FOLKS CP 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 3 | 4.0 | N |
| 2 | 7 | THE RUNNER V1 M F Poon · F C Lor | M F Poon | F C Lor | 8 | 10.0 | N |
| 3 | 1 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT TT Z Purton · T P Yung | Z Purton | T P Yung | 1 | 4.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 10 | 6.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 8 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK K C Leung · W Y So | K C Leung | W Y So | 5 | 45.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 10 | JAZZ STEED TT M L Yeung · C Fownes | M L Yeung | C Fownes | 7 | 92.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | HARMONY N HOME R Maia · C S Shum | R Maia | C S Shum | 12 | 50.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER B C L Chau · D J Whyte | C L Chau | D J Whyte | 2 | 13.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 11 | SPECIAL M B/TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 6 | 9.2 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 12 | HARRIER JET B C Wong · P O'Sullivan | C Wong | P O'Sullivan | 9 | 128.0 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | ROCK YA HEART CP/H1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 4 | 4.0 | 6 |
| 12 | 6 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE TT K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 11 | 49.0 | 14-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DIAMOND BRILLIANT | 17.6% | 5.68 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | ROCK YA HEART | 15.3% | 6.53 | 11 |
| 3 | 3 | FAMILY FOLKS | 15.1% | 6.63 | 1 |
| 4 | 5 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 13.6% | 7.35 | 4 |
| 5 | 11 | SPECIAL M | 10.0% | 9.96 | 9 |
| 6 | 2 | FIRST RESPONDER | 8.6% | 11.60 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | THE RUNNER | 5.4% | 18.56 | 2 |
| 8 | 6 | QUADRUPLE DOUBLE | 4.4% | 22.67 | 12 |
| 9 | 8 | GOODLUCK GOODLUCK | 3.6% | 27.65 | 5 |
| 10 | 9 | HARMONY N HOME | 2.4% | 40.83 | 7 |
| 11 | 10 | JAZZ STEED | 2.4% | 41.49 | 6 |
| 12 | 12 | HARRIER JET | 1.5% | 68.35 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 40.5
PLACE
1 16
3 14.5
7 30.5
QUINELLA
3,7 218.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 35
1,7 78
3,7 75
FORECAST
3,7 296
TIERCE
3,7,1 1,270
TRIO
1,3,7 335
FIRST 4
1,3,5,7 324
QUARTET
3,7,1,5 6,316
All pools (5 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 25
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,9/1,3,7 55,557
8TH DOUBLE
3/3 143
3/7 123.5
SIX UP
4/2/5,6/10/3/3 28,549
4,5/2,3/1,5,6/4,10/3,6/3,7 1,742
2 [J Moreira] —
TREBLE
10/3/3 1,158
10/3/7 758